测量中国房地产政策不确定性研究  

Measuring Real Estate Policy Uncertainty

作　　者：陈英楠[1] 莫东翠 唐思华 李慧慧 Yingnan Chen;Dongcui Mo;Sihua Tang;Huihui Li(Jinan University;University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;International Business Machine Technology(Shenzhen)Co.LTD;Branch of China Banking arid Insurance Regulatory Commission in Fuyang)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院金融系与金融研究所,510632 [2]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院 [3]国际商业机器科技(深圳)有限公司 [4]中国银行保险监督管理委员会阜阳监管分局

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2022年第2期405-424,共20页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA115)的资助及暨南大学高性能超级计算平台的支持。

摘　　要：基于Baker et al.(2016)的报纸文本分析方法,本文构造了2001—2018年的月度中国房地产政策不确定性(REPU)指数。在政府出台重要调控政策及调控态度、调控工具发生转变时,REPU指数均明显上升。REPU指数与中国经济政策不确定性(CEPU)指数、国房景气指数的相关系数分别为0.44与-0.34。VAR模型结果表明,REPU的上升预示商品住宅开发投资、销售面积与房地产业增加值增速的下降。该指数的构建有助于拓展对政策不确定性的理解,为进一步研究REPU对房地产市场的影响奠定基础。Referring to newspaper textual analysis method in Baker et al.(2016), we construct a monthly Chinese Real Estate Policy Uncertainty(REPU)index from 2001 to 2018, which increases significantly near the promulgation of major policies. We also conduct a related test and evaluation of the index with the VAR model, which reveals that the rise of REPU indicates the decline in the growth rate of commodity housing development investment, sales area and industry added value. The REPU index is helpful to expand the understanding of policy uncertainty, and accurate measurement of REPU is the basis for further research of its impact on real estate market.

关 键 词：房地产调控 政策不确定性 文本分析 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]