基于AHP-理想点法的隧道突泥涌水风险评价  

Evaluation of Water and Mud Inrush Risk in Tunnel Based on AHP-ideal Point Method

作　　者：杜义祥 朱宏伟[2] 李明骏 DU Yi-xiang;ZHU Hong-wei;LI Ming-jun(Sichuan Zhentong Inspection Co.,Ltd.,Mianyang Sichuan 621010,China;School of Environment and Resources,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianvang Sichuan 621010,China)

机构地区：[1]四川振通检测股份有限公司,四川绵阳621010 [2]西南科技大学环境与资源学院,四川绵阳621010

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2022年第3期100-107,共8页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41571004);西南科技大学科研项目(20zx1102)。

摘　　要：为实现对隧道突泥涌水风险的有效管控,减少因这种灾害带来的损失,采用AHP-理想点法建立了隧道突泥涌水风险等级的评价模型,分析了雅叶高速公路折多山隧道发生突泥涌水风险的等级。首先,通过分析影响隧道突泥涌水的各种因素,将不良地质、地层岩性、水力条件和人为因素作为一级指标,构建了一个多层次的隧道突泥涌水风险评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定了各评价指标的权重。其次,依据隧道孕灾环境特点和各指标对隧道涌突水灾害发生的影响程度,结合隧址区地质灾害的发育状况及相关统计分析结果,将涌突水风险等级划分为低风险(Ⅰ)、中等风险(Ⅱ)、高风险(Ⅲ)和极高风险(Ⅳ)4级,并确定了隧道突泥涌水风险定性评价的分级标准。最后,引入理想点法,将评价指标划分为“正向增长型”和“逆向减小型”两类,由此得到正反理想点矩阵和理想点贴近度,根据理想点贴近度最大即与对应风险等级最为贴近的原则确定出隧道突泥涌水风险的等级。将该方法应用于该隧道3个典型施工段落的突泥涌水风险评价。结果表明:评价结果与采用集对分析方法和模糊综合评判法得到的结果完全一致,与现场实际开挖情况也较为吻合,进而验证了该评价模型的有效性,该方法为隧道突泥涌水风险评价及预测提供了新的思路。In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water and mud inrush in tunnel and reduce the damage caused by such disaster, a model for evaluating the risk level of water and mud inrush in tunnel is established by using AHP-ideal point method, and the risk level of water and mud inrush in Zheduoshan Tunnel on Yaan-Yecheng expressway is analyzed. First, by analyzing the influencing factors of water and mud inrush in tunnel, taking the poor geological condition, stratum lithology, hydraulic condition and human factor as the first-class indicators, a multi-level indicator system for tunnel water and mud inrush risk evaluation is established, and the weight of each evaluation indicator is determined by using AHP. Then, according to the characteristics of disaster-pregnant environment and the influence degree of each indicator on the occurrence of tunnel water and mud inrush disaster, combining with the development of geological hazards in the tunnel area and the related statistical analysis results, the water and mud inrush risk levels is divided into 4 levels: low risk(Ⅰ), medium risk(Ⅱ), high risk(Ⅲ) and extremely high risk(Ⅳ), and the classification criterion for qualitative evaluation of water and mud inrush risk in tunnel is determined. At last, the evaluation indicators are divided into positive increase type and negative decrease type by introducing the ideal point method, thus the positive and negative ideal point matrixes and the ideal point closeness are obtained. The risk level of tunnel water and mud inrush is obtained according to the principle that the maximum ideal point closeness is the closest to the corresponding risk level. The proposed method is applied to the risk evaluation of water and mud inrush in 3 typical construction section of a tunnel. The result shows that the prediction result is consistent with the results obtained by set pair analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and is also in good agreement with the actual excavation situation on the site, thus

关 键 词：隧道工程 风险评价 理想点法 突泥涌水 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TU443[建筑科学—岩土工程]