南四湖流域降水与天然径流量变化特征分析  

Changes of Precipitation and Natural Run-Off in Nansi Lake Basin

作　　者：陈吉星 颜志庆 陈祥宇 CHEN Jixing;YAN Zhiqing;CHEN Xiangyu(Jining Water Conservancy Development Center tJining 272000,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Jining Hydrology Center,Jining 272000,China)

机构地区：[1]济宁市水利事业发展中心,山东济宁272000 [2]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [3]济宁市水文中心,山东济宁272000

出　　处：《水文》2022年第2期80-84,90,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

摘　　要：利用多种数理统计方法对南四湖流域代表站2000-2016年降水和天然径流量变化特征进行分析,并从降水角度对分阶段天然径流量变化的成因进行解析。结果表明:除鱼台站外,南四湖流域降水逐年代下降,但趋势性不显著;所有站点降水的突变点均为2002年和2011年;各水文站点天然径流量的均表现为下降趋势,西苇水库与后营站分别有1种和2种方法通过了显著性检验;孙庄和鱼台站径流突变点与降水保持一致,其余站点不一致。This paper analyzed the variation characteristics of precipitation and natural runoff by using a variety of mathematical statistical methods of the representative stations in Nansi Lake basin from 2000 to 2016,while the causes of natural runoff variation in different stages were analyzed based on the precipitation.The results show that except Yutai station,the precipitation in Nansi Lake basin decreased year by year,but the trend was not significant.The mutation points of precipitation at all stations occured in 2002 and 2011.The natural runoff of each hydrological station showed a downward trend,while results from one and two methods in Xiwei reservoir and Houying station respectively passed the significance test.The mutation points of runoff at Sunzhuang and Yutai stations are consistent with precipitation,while that of other stations are inconsistent with precipitation.

关 键 词：南四湖流域 降水 天然径流量 变化特征 趋势 突变 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]