四阶段预测法在公路交通量预测中的应用研究  

Research on Application of Four-stage Prediction Method in Highway Traffic Volume Prediction

作　　者：沙爱敏[1] 王晓东 Sha Aimin;Wang Xiaodong(Department of Civil Engineering,Yangzhou Polytechnic College,Yangzhou 225009,China;Transportation Bureau of Yizheng,Yizheng 211400,China)

机构地区：[1]扬州市职业大学土木工程学院,扬州市225009 [2]仪征市交通运输局,仪征市211400

出　　处：《北方交通》2022年第4期76-79,共4页Northern Communications

基　　金：扬州市职业大学优秀青年骨干教师资助(扬职大[2020]8号);扬州市职业大学科技创新团队建设资助(KYCXTD201905)。

摘　　要：以某国道新集南段工程项目为实例,在现有路网交通OD调查的基础上,利用“四阶段预测法”对交通生成、交通分布、诱增交通量和转移交通量及交通量分配进行合理预测,得到交通量在路网中的分配结果并进行分析。该方法合理可行,对公路交通规划及公路交通量预测具有理论和实践应用价值。Taking a project of Xinji south section of a national highway as an example,based on the OD investigation of the existing road network,the traffic generation,traffic distribution,induced traffic volume,transferred traffic volume and traffic volume assignment are reasonably predicted by using the"four-stage prediction method",and the distribution results of traffic volume in the road network are obtained and analyzed.This method is reasonable and feasible.It has the theoretical and practical application value for the highway traffic planning and highway traffic volume prediction.

关 键 词：四阶段法 交通量预测 交通量分布 交通分配 

分 类 号：U491.113[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]