基于双层主题模型的技术演化分析框架及其应用  

Technology Evolution Analysis Framework Based on Two-Layer Topic Model and Application

作　　者：吕璐成 周健[3] 王学昭[1,2] 刘细文 Lv Lucheng;Zhou Jian;Wang Xuezhao;Liu Xiwen(National Science Library,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Department of Library,Information and Archives Management,School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academic of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Institute of Computing Technology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院文献情报中心,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院图书情报与档案管理系,北京100190 [3]中国科学院计算技术研究所,北京100094

出　　处：《数据分析与知识发现》2022年第2期18-32,共15页Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery

基　　金：中国科学院战略研究专项(项目编号:GHJ-ZLZX-2020-31-3)的研究成果之一。

摘　　要：【目的】针对开展技术演化分析时依赖主题间相似度计算和人工设定阈值判断窗口技术主题间关联关系的问题,进行方法研究。【方法】构建基于双层主题模型的技术主题演化分析框架。分别采用基于LDA和基于NMF的双层主题模型识别动态主题,通过主题内一致性和差异度指标评价两种方法的技术主题识别效果,对比选定最优方法,从主题成长性和重要性方面进行技术主题演化分析。【结果】通过在资源环境领域的应用研究发现,基于NMF的双层主题模型识别的动态主题具有更高的主题内语义一致性和主题间语义差异度,技术演化分析结果能够从《麻省理工科技评论》发布的突破性技术清单中得到验证。【局限】仅研究了技术从出现到消亡的发展轨迹,未关注技术的分裂、衍生和融合。【结论】所提方法能够利用特定时间段的文献数据,自动识别动态主题并对主题的演化轨迹进行分析,在科技情报分析工作中具有实际应用价值。[Objective]This paper constructs a new analysis framework for technology evolution,aiming to address the problems of the topic similarity calculation and manually setting the threshold to judge the correlation between window technology topics.[Methods]We established the new framework based on two layer topic model,which identified the dynamic topics using the LDA and NMF.Then,we evaluated the technical topic identification effects with the indicators of inner consistency and outer difference of the topics.Finally,we analyzed the evolution of technical topics from the perspectives of topic growth and importance.[Results]We examined our new method with data from the field of resources and environment.The two layer topic model based on NMF is more effective in dynamic topic recognition,and the analysis results of technology evolution can be verified from the list of breakthrough technologies released by MIT Technology Review.[Limitations]This paper only studies the development of technology from emergence to extinction,and does not examine the division,derivation and integration of technology.[Conclusions]The proposed method can automatically identify dynamic topics and analyze their evolution tracks using the literature.It has application value in scientific and technological information analysis.

关 键 词：技术演化分析 主题模型 科技文献挖掘 NMF 资源环境领域 

分 类 号：G254[文化科学—图书馆学]