清代关中地区饥荒的时空变化特征  

Spatial and temporal characteristics of famine in the Guanzhong region during the Qing Dynasty

作　　者：文彦君[1,2] 李晓宇 万红莲[1,2] 徐彬 王祎楠 WEN Yanjun;LI Xiaoyu;WAN Honglian;XU Bin;WANG Yinan(College of geography and Environment;Key Lab of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulating of Shaanxi Province,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,China)

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院,宝鸡721013 [2]宝鸡文理学院陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室,宝鸡721013

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2022年第3期81-91,共11页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA19040101);国家社会科学基金重大项目(批准号:13&ZD092);陕西省重点实验室项目(13JS009);宝鸡文理学院研究生科研创新项目(YJSCX21YB02)资助。

摘　　要：论文基于《中国三千年气象记录总集》、《陕西省自然灾害史料》等全国性及地方性汇编史料,提取清代(1644-1911年)关中地区饥荒县次、饥荒等级、饥荒月份与季节等信息。利用语义差异法及频次统计重建清代关中地区逐年饥荒序列,并应用指标统计、滑动平均、Image函数和核密度等方法分析关中地区饥荒的时空变化特征。结果表明:1)清代关中地区饥荒具有明显的阶段性、年代际及季节变化特征。1861-1911年为典型的饥荒多发-偏重时期,而饥荒最严重的1690s、1870s具有频率高、强度大、范围广的特点,饥荒主要发生在夏季。2)清代关中地区饥荒具有显著的空间差异。饥荒多发区以西安府为中心沿渭河流域呈东西向展布,西安府、同州府南部及凤翔府东部为饥荒的热点区。其空间分布格局可能受到人口、农业布局、经济水平等因素的影响。3)清代关中地区饥荒与气候变化、自然灾害存在一定关联。干冷气候背景下饥荒频次及强度明显增加,旱灾、冻灾、蝗灾等自然灾害则对饥荒的短期波动存在明显影响。饥荒与气候变化、自然灾害的关联随着清代后期社会经济韧性减弱而强化,由旱灾等自然灾害导致的严重饥荒频次和强度达到峰值。上述认识对于客观重现历史时期关中地区粮食安全危机及其影响,科学辨识区域粮食安全风险及其空间分布,深入理解区域粮食安全战略具有一定参考价值。In the paper,the information on the number of famine counties,famine levels,famine months and seasons in Guanzhong region during the Qing Dynasty(1644-1911)were collected from the“General Collection of Meteorological Records of China in the Third Millennium”and other sources such as authentic histories and local chronicles.The semantic difference method and frequency statistics were used to reconstruct the yearly famine series in Guanzhong region during the Qing Dynasty,and the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of famine in Guanzhong region were analyzed by applying the methods of indicator statistics,sliding average,image function and kernel density.The results show that:1)Famine in Guanzhong region in Qing Dynasty showed obvious characteristics of phase,inter-decade and seasonal variations.1861-1911 was a typical periods with frequent and heavy famines,while the most severe famines in 1690 s and 1870 s had the characteristics of high frequency,high intensity and wide range,and the famines mainly occurred in autumn.2)The famines in Guanzhong region in Qing Dynasty had significant spatial differences.The famine prone areas were spread in an east-west direction along the Wei River basin with Xi′an prefecture as the center,and the hot spots of famine were Xi′an prefecture,southern Tongzhou prefecture and eastern Fengxiang prefecture.The spatial distribution pattern may be influenced by factors such as population,agricultural layout,and economic level.3)The famines in the Guanzhong region during the Qing Dynasty was related to climate change and natural disasters.The frequency and intensity of famine increased significantly under the background of dry and cold climate;while natural disasters such as drought,frost and locusts obviously influenced the short-term fluctuation of famine.The association of famine with climate change and natural disasters intensified with the weakening of socio-economic resilience in the late Qing Dynasty,and the frequency and intensity of severe famines were caused by natu

关 键 词：饥荒 时空变化特征 清代 关中地区 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]