疫情背景下中国猪肉价格波动的主要影响因素研究  

Research on the main influencing factors of pork price fluctuations in China under the background of COVID-19

作　　者：唐利群 陈小珍[1] TANG Li-qun;CHEN Xiao-zhen(College of Economics and Management,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310018;Chinnese Academy for Rural Development,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310020)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学经济与管理学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]浙江大学中国农村发展研究院,浙江杭州310020

出　　处：《价格月刊》2022年第4期1-7,共7页

基　　金：浙江省公益技术研究计划(编号:LGN20G030001);浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(编号:20NDQN298YB)。

摘　　要：受非洲猪瘟及新冠肺炎疫情影响,猪肉市场价格出现较大波动,严重影响居民生活。首先,从供给、需求及外部环境3个方面对中国猪肉市场价格波动的主要影响因素进行定性分析;其次,选取10个指标进行主成分分析,发现影响中国猪肉价格波动的4个指标分别是仔猪、育肥猪配合饲料、牛肉和经济政策不确定性指数;第三,利用2003年1月~2021年9月中国猪肉价格月度数据,构建VAR模型实证分析了4大指标对中国猪肉价格波动的影响程度。结果表明,经济政策不确定性指数对中国猪肉价格的影响程度最大,然后依次是仔猪、育肥猪配合饲料及牛肉价格。根据研究结论,提出了相应对策建议。Influenced by the African swine fever virus and COVID-19,the price of pork market fluctuated greatly,which seriously affected the lives of residents.Firstly,this paper makes a qualitative analysis on the main influencing factors of price fluctuations in China’s pork market from three aspects:supply,demand and external environment.Secondly,it selects 10 indicators for principal component analysis.It is found that the four indicators affecting the fluctuations of China’s pork price are piglet,formula feeds for growing-finishing pigs,beef and economic policy uncertainty index.Thirdly,using the monthly data of China’s pork price from January 2003 to September 2021,it constructs a VAR model to empirically analyze the impact of the four indicators on the fluctuations of China’s pork price.The results show that the economic policy uncertainty index has the greatest impact on the China’s pork price,followed by the price of piglets,formula feeds for growing-finishing pigs and beef.According to the research conclusion,this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

关 键 词：猪肉 价格波动 主成分分析法 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]