中国、美国、欧盟及世界一次能源消费现状与展望  

Current situation and outlook of primary energy consumption in China,US,EU and the world

作　　者：刘明亮 卫浩 盖玉龙 吕品 Liu Mingliang;Wei Hao;Gai Yulong;Lyu Pin(Changzheng Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 101111,China;Beijing Changzheng Mechanical Equipment Manufacture Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 101111,China)

机构地区：[1]航天长征化学工程股份有限公司,北京101111 [2]北京航天长征机械设备制造有限公司,北京101111

出　　处：《煤化工》2022年第2期1-5,共5页Coal Chemical Industry

摘　　要：“双碳”目标正引起能源及煤化工行业的广泛关注,而“双碳”目标的实现与一次能源消费紧密相关。根据BP公司发布的《2021年世界能源统计回顾》及BP公司的其他能源统计资料,分析、总结了中国、美国、欧盟及世界近20年来一次能源消费总量、人均能源消费量、一次能源消费结构及CO_(2)排放的变化情况:我国一次能源消费总量居世界第一,但近几年增速迅速下降;我国人均能源消费量超过了世界平均水平,但远低于美国、欧盟人均能源消费量;我国一次能源消费中煤炭占比远高于美国、欧盟及世界平均水平,但呈现逐年下降的趋势;我国CO_(2)排放量居世界第一,调整能源结构是减少CO_(2)排放的重要措施。通过Rapid、Net Zero和BAU三种情景模型,展望2050年,我国和世界可再生能源占比都将大幅度提高,我国煤炭消费占比将大幅度下降,全球将进入低碳能源时代。The"Dual Carbon"goal is attracting widespread attention in the energy and coal chemical industries,and the realization of the"Dual Carbon"goal is closely related to the primary energy consumption.According to the Review of World Energy Statistics 2021 released by BP and other energy statistics of BP,the changes of total primary energy consumption,per capita energy consumption,primary energy consumption structure and CO_(2) emissions in China,the United States,the European Union and the world in the past 20 years were analyzed and summarized.China′s total primary energy consumption ranks the first in the world,while the growth rate has declined rapidly in recent years;China′s per capita energy consumption exceeds the world average,but is far lower than that of the United States and the European Union;the proportion of coal in China′s primary energy consumption is much higher than that of the United States,the European Union and the world average,but it shows a trend of decline year by year;China′s CO_(2) emission ranks the first in the world,and adjusting the energy structure is an important measure to reduce CO_(2) emission.Through the three scenario models of Rapid,Net Zero and BAU,looking to the Year 2050,the proportion of renewable energy in China and the world will increase significantly,coal consumption in China will decrease significantly,and the world will enter the era of low-carbon energy.

关 键 词：一次能源 消费总量 人均能耗 消费结构 CO_(2)排放 2050年展望 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]