基于贝叶斯网络的矿区重金属污染农地农户适应行为机理研究  

Study on Farmers’ Adaptive Behavior Mechanism of Heavy Metal Pollution Agricultural Land in Mining Area Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：杨金凤 陈勇 曾向阳[1,2] 梁雅琪[1] 杨梅 黄锦 ANG Jinfeng;CHEN Yong;ZENG Xiangyang;LIANG Yaqi;YANG Mei;HUANG Jin(College of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,Hubei 430081,China;State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Mineral Metallurgical Resources Utilization and Pollution Control,Wuhan,Hubei 430081,China;Hubei Key Laboratory for Efficient Utilization and Agglomeration of Metallurgic Mineral Resources,Wuhan,Hubei 430081,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北武汉430081 [2]国家环境保护矿冶资源利用与污染控制重点实验室,湖北武汉430081 [3]冶金矿产资源高效利用与造块湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430081

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2022年第4期140-146,共7页Mining Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41971237);国家环境保护矿冶资源利用与污染控制重点实验室开放基金项目(HB201916)。

摘　　要：矿区是农地重金属污染的高发地区,理解矿区农户对重金属污染的适应行为选择倾向及其影响机理,对于制定科学的治理和管控政策至关重要。通过大冶市典型重金属污染矿区农户问卷调查,将农户适应行为划分为风险应对行为和风险规避行为,并以计划行为理论为指导,建立了包括农户特征、污染感知、行为意愿、适应行为4大模块的矿区重金属污染农地农户适应行为贝叶斯网络模型。研究结果表明:(1)农户污染感知对其适应行为的直接影响较小,但农户污染感知可通过影响其行为意愿而影响适应行为,农户污染感知的增强可改善其行为态度,行为态度有向“积极”转移的趋势,当农户感觉污染影响非常严重时,其主观规范也将增强,即农地利用更倾向于受到他人、媒体或政府的影响,但农户的污染感知对其知觉行为控制影响较小;(2)对风险应对行为较为敏感的变量是行为态度和土地依赖,农户行为态度和土地依赖的增强能显著增加其风险应对行为概率,农户主观规范、知觉行为控制的增强也能增加其风险应对行为概率,但农户行动阻尼增大将减少其风险应对行为概率;(3)对风险规避行为较为敏感的变量是户主素质和知觉行为控制,户主素质的提高将显著增加其风险规避行为概率,知觉行为控制的增强能显著减少其风险规避概率,农户主观规范、行为态度的增强也能减少其风险规避行为概率。Mining area was a high incidence area of heavy metal pollution agricultural land. It was of great importance to understand the adaptive behavior selection tendency of farmers in mining area and its influence mechanism for formulating scientific treatment and control policies. Based on the questionnaire survey of farmers in typical heavy metal pollution mining areas in Daye, Farmer’s adaptive behaviors were divided into risk response behaviors and risk aversion behaviors, Under the guidance of planned behavior theory, a Bayesian network model of farmers’ adaptive behavior in heavy metal pollution agricultural land in mining areas was established, which included four modules: farmers’ characteristics, pollution perception, behavior willingness and adaptive behavior. The results are concluded as follows. Firstly, farmers’ pollution perception has a little direct impact on their adaptive behaviors, but can affect their adaptive behavior through influencing their behavior willingness. The enhancement of farmers’ pollution perception could improve their behavior attitude to positive. When farmers feel that the impact of pollution is very serious, their subjective norms also increase, namely, the use of agricultural land is more likely to be affected by other persons, the medias or the governments, but farmers’ pollution perception has a little impact on their perceived behavior control. Secondly, the variables sensitive to risk response behavior are behavior attitude and land dependence. The enhancement of farmers’ behavior attitude and land dependence could significantly increase the probability of their risk response behavior. The enhancement of farmers’ subjective norms and perceived behavior control also increases the probability of their risk response behavior, but the increase of farmer’s action damping will reduce the probability of their risk response behavior. Thirdly, the variables sensitive to risk response behavior were household head quality and perceptual behavior control. The improvemen

关 键 词：重金属污染 农地农户 适应行为 贝叶斯网络 矿区 

分 类 号：TD167[矿业工程—矿山地质测量] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]