2008—2018年佳木斯市肺癌死亡趋势时空分析  

Spatio-temporal analysis of lung cancer mortality in Jiamusi from 2008 to 2018

作　　者：肖虹[1] 于钏钏[2] 郭玉珠 陈欣 许宁[2] 包名家[1] 王强[2] XIAO Hong;YU Chuan-chuan;GUO Yu-zhu;CHEN Xin;XU Ning;BAO Ming-jia;WANG Qiang(Jiamusi Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Jiamusi,Heilongjiang 154002,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]佳木斯市疾病预防控制中心,黑龙江佳木斯154002 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所,北京100050 [3]上海交通大学医学院公共卫生学院,上海200025

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2022年第8期1365-1369,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：中国疾病预防控制中心环境所发展项目(HJSFZ2019-001)。

摘　　要：目的 分析2008—2018年佳木斯市肺癌死亡率的时空分布特征。方法 肺癌死亡数据来自于佳木斯市疾病预防控制中心死因登记系统,计算肺癌中国人口标化死亡率和世界人口标化死亡率。应用Joinpoint回归模型计算肺癌死亡率的年百分比变化(the annual percentage change,APC)和年均百分比变化(the average annual percentage change,AAPC)用以评估时间变化趋势,应用Geoda 1.14.0软件进行肺癌死亡率的空间自相关分析。结果 2008—2018年佳木斯市肺癌死亡率最低为27.80/10万,最高为41.43/10万,2014年前肺癌死亡率呈上升趋势,2014年后,女性肺癌死亡率呈下降趋势,男性变化趋势不显著。2009—2011年,佳木斯市女性肺癌死亡率存在空间聚集性(Moran’s I=0.244, P<0.05),但随后聚集现象消失。结论 佳木斯市肺癌死亡率较高,应开展肺癌危险因素和干预研究,以期降低该地区肺癌死亡率。Objective To analyze the spatio-temporal trend of Jiamusi lung cancer mortality from 2008 to 2018. Methods Records of lung cancer death data were derived from the death surveillance system. Lung cancer age-standardized mortality by China population(ASMC) and age-standardized mortality by World population(ASMW) were calculated. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the annual percentage change(APC) and the average annual percentage change(AAPC) in ASMC, and the time trend was analyzed. The GeoDA 1.14.0 software are applied for Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis of ASMC. Results The ASMCs in Jiamusi were between 27.80/100 000 and 41.43/100 000 from 2008 to 2018.Before 2014, the ASMC showed an upward trend. After 2014, the lung cancer mortality rate for females showed a decreasing trend, and the change trend for males was not significant. The female ASMC showed a clustered spatial pattern between 2009and 2011(Moran’s I =0.244, P <0.05) but presented a random geographical pattern afterwards. Conclusion Lung cancer mortality is high in Jiamusi, and studies on lung cancer risk factors and interventions should be conducted with the aim of reducing lung cancer mortality in the region.

关 键 词：肺癌 死亡 时间趋势 空间分析 

分 类 号：R734.2[医药卫生—肿瘤]