考虑用户更换行为的质保成本预测  

Warranty Cost Prediction Considering Users'Replacement Behavior

作　　者：马小敏 何曙光[1] 李婷[1] MA Xiaomin;HE Shuguang;LI Ting(College of Management&Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《工业工程》2022年第2期163-167,共5页Industrial Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71872123)。

摘　　要：针对消费类电子产品的寿命较短,升级过程比较频繁这一现象,考虑用户在考虑多种因素的情况下可能会提前更换产品,部分保修索赔制造商无需承担质保成本,本文在考虑随机销售的情况下,综合硬件故障、软件故障、随机销售以及用户提前更换行为对质保成本进行预测,包含硬件故障、软件故障相互独立以及相互关联的情况,讨论固定时间间隔内的质保费用建模过程。通过数值分析表明,考虑用户的更换行为可显著地降低质保成本,并为制造商制定质保政策提供参考。In view of the short life of consumer electronic products and the frequent upgrade process,considering that users may replace products in advance under the consideration of multiple factors,some warranty claim manufacturers do not have to bear the cost of quality assurance,which will help manufacturers to improve their profits.Considering the case of random sales,the cost of quality assurance is predicted by integrating hardware failure,software failure,random sales and users'replacement behavior in advance,including the situation where hardware failure and software failure are independent and correlated,the modeling process of quality assurance cost within a fixed time interval is discussed.The numerical analysis shows that the cost of quality assurance can be significantly reduced when users'replacement behavior is taken into account,and it can also provide references for manufacturers to make quality assurance policies.

关 键 词：质保成本 用户更换行为 软硬件故障 随机销售 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]