我国通用航空作业市场需求预测分析——基于GM(1,1)模型与生命周期识别模型  

Forecast and Analysis of General Aviation Operation Market Demand in China: Based on GM(1,1) Model and Life Cycle Identification Model

作　　者：杨璐源 李章萍[2] YANG Luyuan;LI Zhangping(China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology,Beijing 100028,China;Institute of Transportation Science and Engineering,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航科学技术研究院,北京100028 [2]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《综合运输》2022年第4期61-66,共6页China Transportation Review

基　　金：天津市教委资助项目:通用航空发展规律及其监管模式研究(2020SK049)。

摘　　要：近年来,通用航空在我国发展迅速,为了把握通用航空发展规律,全面掌握我国通用航空发展的市场需求情况,文章综合考虑疫情影响,应用GM(1,1)模型对2025年前我国通用航空作业需求情况进行疫情前后的对比预测。预判得到,各类作业市场需求短期受疫情影响有不同程度的降低,未来新兴消费市场需求将持续迸发,通用航空飞行作业将形成新市场格局。最后,根据预测结果运用皮尔曲线拟合并识别出我国通用航空业生命周期内的各发展阶段及对应飞行作业时间,并为促进产业实现供需平衡、持续提速发展提出建议。In recent years, general aviation has developed rapidly in China. In order to grasp the law of general aviation development and fully grasp the market demand for general aviation development in China,the article comprehensively considers the impact of the COVID-19, comprehensively applies the GM(1, 1)model to compare and predict the needs of China general aviation operations before and after the COVID-19 before 2025. It is predicted that the demand of all kinds of operations markets will be reduced to varying degrees in the short term due to the impact of the epidemic. In the future, the demand of emerging consumer markets will continue to burst, and general aviation flight operations will form a new market pattern. Finally,according to the prediction results, the Peel curve is used to fit and identify the various development stages and corresponding flight time in the life cycle of China general aviation industry, and make suggestions for promoting the industry to achieve a balance between supply and demand and continue to accelerate development.

关 键 词：通用航空 新冠疫情 GM(1 1)模型 市场需求 生命周期 

分 类 号：F562[经济管理—产业经济]