21世纪以来中美科技权力空间格局与演化——高技术产品贸易视角  

The pattern and the evolution of science and technology power space between China and the US since the new century:The perspective of high-tech product trade

作　　者：张宇[1] 刘承良[1,2,3] 段德忠[1,2,3] ZHANG Yu;LIU Chengliang;DUAN Dezhong(School of Urban&Regional Science,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Institute for Global Innovation and Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;Center of Geopolitics and Strategic Studies,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院,上海200062 [3]华东师范大学世界地理与地缘战略研究中心,上海200062

出　　处：《地理研究》2022年第4期1032-1053,共22页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA011)。

摘　　要：当前,技术主权化和科技逆全球化趋势日渐显现,全球迈入科技地缘政治时代,科技权力成为大国博弈的焦点。基于国家间相互依赖理论和均势理论,构建高技术产品贸易权力静态比较模型,动态刻画了新世纪以来中美科技权力空间领域及均势区变动过程:(1)全球科技权力版图加速重构,科技权力重心系统性东移,由美国“一极独大”格局向“中美双核”驱动态势演化,双方在科技权力博弈上此消彼长,形成东西并立的格局;(2)中国科技权力空间迅速由周边地区向“一带一路”沿线扩展,美国科技权力空间出现明显收缩,但仍居领导地位;(3)中美科技权力均势区向发达国家、创新资源禀赋型国家转移,欧洲成为双方科技权力的重要均势区,电子技术和光电技术产品则是双方博弈的焦点领域。At present,the trend of technology sovereignty and anti-globalization of science and technology is gradually emerging.The world has entered the era of science and technology geopolitics.The core sources of state power have evolved from military strength in the colonial era to economic strength in the era of trade,and to scientific and technological strength in the era of knowledge.Science and technology power has become the focus of the game among big powers.In the international environment where technology is currently targeted and blocked,how to depict the spatial pattern of power of China and the United States on a global scale and find the key space for breaking the technological blockade are both realistic topics and hot directions in an urgent need of research.Based on the theory of interdependence between countries and the theory of balance of power,this study used sensitivity and vulnerability indexes to establish a static comparative model of trade power of high-tech products,and dynamically depicts the change process of the space and balance of power of science and technology between China and the United States since we entered the new century.Results indicate that:(1) the global map of science and technology power was restructured rapidly.The center of science and technology power moved eastward systematically,which was evolving from the pattern of the US monopole to the situation driven by Sino-US dual cores,that the two sides changed one after another in the game of science and technology power,and finally formed a pattern of East-West coexistence.(2) China’s scientific and technological power space rapidly expanded from the surrounding areas to the countries along the Belt and Road.China’s spaces of science and technology power rapidly expanded in the surrounding areas,while those of the US shrank significantly,although it still occupied a leading position.(3) Countries in the Sino-US economic equilibrium zones shifted to developed countries and the innovative resource endowment countries,especi

关 键 词：科技权力 科技地缘政治 敏感性模型 脆弱性模型 中美博弈 

分 类 号：F276.44[经济管理—企业管理] F752.7[经济管理—国民经济] F757.12