基于脱靶量散布的超空泡鱼雷命中概率研究  

Research on Hitting Probability of Supercavitating Torpedo Based on Dispersion of Miss Distance

作　　者：谢超 周景军 万亚民 宋书龙 王梦豪 XIE Chao;ZHOU Jing-jun;WAN Ya-min;SONG Shu-long;WANG Meng-hao(The 705 Research Institute,China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited,Xi’an 710077,China)

机构地区：[1]中国船舶集团有限公司第705研究所,陕西西安710077

出　　处：《水下无人系统学报》2022年第2期237-244,253,共9页Journal of Unmanned Undersea Systems

基　　金：国家高层次人才特殊支持计划青年拔尖人才项目(W03070206)。

摘　　要：为评估超空泡鱼雷等直航鱼雷的作战效能,明确其命中概率尤为重要。文中提出直航鱼雷的脱靶量解析形式,直观地揭示了鱼雷距离目标最近时的散布规律,同时考虑水面目标几何尺寸以及鱼雷毁伤半径,建立了鱼雷命中目标的判定模型。进一步分析了从对目标探测到命中目标的直航鱼雷攻击全过程,提取出过程中的误差来源,并采用基于蒙特卡洛的统计方法对超空泡鱼雷命中概率进行评估。通过仿真试验分析了初始雷目距离、初始目标舷角和目标航速对命中概率的影响。结果表明,超空泡鱼雷最佳射距在5 km以内,在初始目标舷角为20°~150°之间具有更高的命中概率,对低速目标的攻击优势主要体现在大舷角范围内。To evaluate the operational effectiveness of straight running torpedoes such as supercavitating torpedo, it is essential to clarify the hitting probability. In this paper, an analytical formula of the miss distance was proposed, which intuitively reveals the dispersion law of the torpedo when it is closest to the target. Simultaneously, considering the geometric size of surface target and the torpedo damage radius, a judgment model of the torpedo hits the target was established. Furthermore, the study analyzes the entire process of a straight running torpedo attack from the detection of the target to the hit target, extracts the source of the error in the process, and uses a Monte Carlo-based statistical method to evaluate the hitting probability of the supercavitating torpedo. The simulation test mainly analyzed the influence of the initial distance between torpedo and target, the initial target board angle, and the target’s speed on the hitting probability.The results show that the best shooting distance of the supercavitating torpedo is within 5 km, and it has a higher hitting probability when the initial target board angle is between 20° and 150°, and the advantage of attacking the low-speed target is mainly reflected in the range of the large target board angle.

关 键 词：超空泡鱼雷 脱靶量 命中概率 蒙特卡洛法 

分 类 号：TJ630.1[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]