基于GM灰色理论和WBS分解结构的市政管网价格概算预测模型的设计及检验  

Design and Test of Municipal Pipe Network Price Estimation Prediction Model Based on Grey Model Theory and Work Breakdown Structure

作　　者：戴梅菲 Dai Meifei(Guangzhou Municipal Engineering Design and Research Institute Co.Ltd.,Guangzhou 510000,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市市政工程设计研究总院有限公司,广东广州510000

出　　处：《工程造价管理》2022年第2期32-39,共8页Engineering Cost Management

摘　　要：目前我国产业经济处于转型升级期,市政工程建设领域对于投资、价格对比、财务预算等各方面的指标测算要求越来越精准。但是市政领域中对于项目概算没有制定统一的标准,也没有统一的标准测算方式,所以市政类项目的工程造价在概算期和结算期往往差别巨大,无法对项目投资进行具有提前量的有效超前控制。文章通过编制有效的预算模型,提高价格预测的精准度,结合WBS分解项目概算结构及价格指数组成,利用灰色理论构建概算模型,提高市政管网类项目概算有效性。At present, China’s industrial economy is in the period of transformation and upgrading, and there is a growing demand for accurate measurement of indicators in the field of municipal engineering construction, such as investment, price comparison, financial budget and so on. However, there is no unified standard or unified standard measurement method for project budget estimation in the field of municipal engineering. Therefore, the engineering cost of municipal projects often varies greatly between the budget estimation period and the settlement period, so it is impossible to effectively control the project investment in advance. In this paper, an effective budget model is prepared to improve the accuracy of price prediction. Combined with WBS, the project budget structure and price index composition are decomposed, and the budget estimation model is constructed by using grey theory, improve the budgetary estimate effectiveness of municipal pipe network projects.

关 键 词：GM 灰色理论 WBS分解结构 市政管网价格 预测模型 

分 类 号：TU-9[建筑科学]