奉节新铺滑坡裂缝位移与降雨天数相关性研究  

Study on correlation between crack displacement and rainfall days of Xinpu Landslide in Fengjie

作　　者：岑越 刘振平[1,2] 刘建 李强[3] 胡训健 陈明 CEN Yue;LIU Zhenping;LIU Jian;LI Qiang;HU Xunjian;CHEN Ming(State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering,Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan 430071,Hubei,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所岩土力学与工程国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430071 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2022年第2期133-141,共9页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金项目(E0312502);国家自然科学基金项目(51779249)。

摘　　要：为揭示有效降雨量模型中降雨天数与滑坡裂缝位移之间的关联,提出基于有效降雨量模型与皮尔逊相关系数的计算方法。以奉节县新铺滑坡作为研究对象,利用地质灾害监测系统采集滑坡位移与日降雨量数据,对奉节城市裂缝2的监测点位移与降雨天数进行相关性分析。基于相关度分析结果,对相关系数r与日前降雨量R_(n)中天数n进行曲线拟合,提出针对新铺滑坡不同时期有效降雨量模型天数n的最佳取值。结果表明:奉节县降雨集中时期,监测点裂缝位移剧烈变化,与日有效降雨量R_(e)呈显著相关,日前降雨量R_(n)的降雨天数n最佳取值为15 d;降雨稀少时期,监测点裂缝位移变化缓慢且不明显,与日有效降雨量R_(e)呈低度相关,日前降雨量R_(n)的降雨天数n最佳取值为11 d;日前降雨天数n与相关系数r呈指数函数曲线分布。In order to reveal the correlation between the number of rainfall days in the effective rainfall model and the displacement of landslide crack, an effective rainfall model and the Pearson correlation coefficient-based calculation method is proposed herein. Taking Xinpu Landslide in Fengjie County as the study object, the relevant landslide displacement and daily rainfall data are collected with geological disaster monitoring system, and then the correlation between the displacements at two crack-monitoring points in Fengjie City and the rainfall days is analyzed. In accordance with the correlation analysis result, the curve-fitting for the correlation coefficient r and the number of days n in the day-ahead rainfall R_(n)is made and the optimal values for the number of days n of the effective rainfall model in different periods of Xinpu Landslide are put forward. The result shows that the crack displacements at the monitoring points are drastically changed during the rainfall concentration periods, which are significantly correlated to the effective daily rainfall R_(e), while the optimal value of the rainfall days n of the day-ahead rainfall R_(n)is 15 d. During the period of scarce rainfall, the change of the crack displacement at monitoring point is slow and not so significant, which exhibits low correlation to the day-ahead effective rainfall R_(e), while the optimal value of the rainfall days n is 11 d and the number of day-ahead rainfall days n is distributed in an exponential function curve with the correlation coefficient r.

关 键 词：新铺滑坡 有效降雨量 滑坡位移 相关性分析 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]