解雇规制对就业稳定性的影响--基于《劳动合同法》实施效果的实证研究  

The Impact of Dismissal Legislation on Employment Stability:An Empirical Study Based on the Implementation of the Labor Contract Law

作　　者：蒋帆 于大川 Jiang Fan;Yu Dachuan(School of Public Administration,Guangdong University of Finance)

机构地区：[1]广东金融学院公共管理学院

出　　处：《劳动经济研究》2021年第6期98-120,共23页Studies in Labor Economics

基　　金：广东省基础与应用基础研究基金区域联合基金青年项目“城镇雇员就业稳定性变迁及影响研究:理论机制与经验证据”(项目编号:2019A1515110354)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：解雇规制是提高劳动者就业稳定性的重要手段,但其实际效果常常受到质疑。本文基于2012年中国劳动力动态调查的工作史数据,以《劳动合同法》的实施为准自然实验构建双重差分模型,实证检验了解雇规制对就业稳定性的影响。研究发现,《劳动合同法》有关无固定期限劳动合同的规定,显著提高了在职时间接近但不足10年的雇员的离职概率,说明解雇规制对部分劳动者的就业稳定性造成了负面影响。进一步研究表明,这种影响在人力资本较低、私有部门以及小型单位的雇员中间表现得更加显著,这可能加剧中国现有的就业不平等问题。研究认为,劳动保障立法应充分考虑市场主体的能动性对法律实施效果的影响,以精准实现“稳就业、保民生”的政策目标。Employment dismissal legislation is an important method to improve employment stability and security.But it is often unclear to what extent the legislation effectively protects labor right.Based on individual employment history data from the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey in 2012,this paper takes the implementation of the Labor Contract Law as a quasi-experimental setting to empirically examine the impact of dismissal legislation on employment stability with a difference-in-difference model.The study finds that following the legislation of the Labor Contract Law on non-fixed-term labor contracts,the dismissal rate among employees with close to 10 years tenure has been significantly increased,possibly implying that the dismissal legislation has a negative impact on the employment stability of these workers.The negative impact is more significant among employees with low human capital,in the private sector,and in small companies,which may exacerbate the existing employment inequality in China’s labor market.The study highlights that job security legislation should fully consider the initiatives of market players,so as to successfully achieve the policy goal of stabilizing employment and protecting people’s livelihood.

关 键 词：解雇规制 就业稳定性 劳动合同法 无固定期限劳动合同 劳动保障 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] D922.52[经济管理—国民经济]