针对多源不确定性变量的非概率可靠性灵敏度分析  

Non-probabilistic Reliability Sensitivity Analysis for Multi-source Uncertain Variables

作　　者：乔心州[1] 杨果 方秀荣[1] 刘鹏[1] QIAO Xinzhou;YANG Guo;FANG Xiurong;LIU Peng(School of Mechanical Engineering,Xi′an University of Science and Technology,Xi′an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学机械工程学院,西安710054

出　　处：《机械科学与技术》2022年第5期721-728,共8页Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51775427);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2019JQ-796);陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(18JK0506)。

摘　　要：采用多椭球模型描述结构多源不确定性,提出了一种非概率可靠性灵敏度分析方法。首先,将非概率可靠性指标作为多椭球模型非概率可靠性的度量标准,分别给出线性和非线性极限状态函数的非概率可靠性指标求解方法。其次,将非概率可靠性灵敏度定义为非概率可靠性指标对不确定变量均值、区间半径及相关系数的偏导数,提出一种非概率可靠性灵敏度分析的近似解析方法。再次,讨论了多椭球模型可靠性灵敏度分析方法较之于区间模型和椭球模型可靠性灵敏度分析方法的一般性和广泛适用性。最后通过3个算例验证本文所提方法的可行性和优越性。This paper proposes a novel non-probabilistic reliability sensitivity analysis method and uses the multi-ellipsoid model to describe the multi-source uncertainties of a structure. It takes the non-probabilistic reliability index as the measure of non-probabilistic reliability and gives the solutions of non-probabilistic reliability indices of a linear limit state function and a nonlinear limit state function respectively. It develops an approximate analytical method for non-probabilistic reliability sensitivity analysis and defines reliability sensitivity as the partial derivative of the non-probabilistic reliability index with respect to uncertain variable′s mean value, interval radius and correlation coefficient. The generality and wide applicability of the multi-ellipsoid model′s reliability sensitivity analysis method compared with those for interval model and ellipsoid model are discussed. Three numerical examples are utilized to verify the feasibility and superiority of the proposed method.

关 键 词：多源不确定性 多椭球模型 可靠性指标 可靠性灵敏度 

分 类 号：TH165[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]