山西省药品短缺原因研究及预警模型构建  

Study on the causes of drug shortage in Shanxi province and the construction of forewarning model

作　　者：王燕[1] 张欣[1] 尚楠[1] 任虹莉 晋月萍[1] Wang Yan;Zhang Xin;Shang Nan;Ren Hongli;Jin Yueping(Department of Pharmacy,First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University,Shanxi 030001,China)

机构地区：[1]山西医科大学第一医院药学部,太原030001

出　　处：《中华医院管理杂志》2021年第12期990-994,共5页Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration

摘　　要：目的构建山西省短缺药品预警模型,以期实现药品短缺的提早预测。方法根据山西省各监测点短缺药品数据,从药品因素、政策属性、供方因素和需方因素4个维度,是否妇儿急用药、短缺类型等14个因素进行灰色关联分析,筛选出影响药品短缺程度的主要因素,按照各因素与药品短缺程度的关联程度排序,建立基于两步聚类分析方法的预警分析模型。结果共确定了6个与药品短缺程度关联度最高的因素,依次为:是否属于妇儿急用药、短缺类型、低价药品、当月滚动年度总计在销企业数、短缺原因、是否基本用药。通过两步聚类分析方法构建了山西省短缺药品预警模型,并划分为4个最佳聚类,确定了预警等级。结论本研究建立了山西省短缺药品预警模型,有助于及早发现药品短缺风险,客观预测风险等级,协助药品监管部门实现分层施策及协同响应。Objective To construct the forewarning model of drug shortage in Shanxi province,so as to realize the early prediction of drug shortage.Methods According to the drug shortage of data of each monitoring station in Shanxi province,from the four dimensions of drug factors,policy attributes,supplier factors and demander factors,14 factors were selected for grey correlation analysis,for example whether they were urgent drugs for women and children,shortage types,etc.The main factors affecting the degree of drug shortage were selected,and the early warning analysis model based on two-step cluster analysis method was established.Results A total of six factors with the highest correlation with the degree of drug shortage were determined in this study,in order:whether they were urgent drugs for women and children,shortage types,low-price drugs,the number of moving annual total monitoring enterprises in sale in the current month,shortage reasons,and whether they were basic drugs.Based on the two-step cluster analysis,a model of drug shortage forewarning in Shanxi Province was established,which was divided into four optimal clusters and the warning level was determined.Conclusions This study establishes the early warning model of drug shortage in Shanxi province,which is helpful to find the risk of drug shortage as soon as possible,objectively predict the risk level,and assist the drug regulatory department to realize layered implementation and collaborative response.

关 键 词：预测 短缺药品 预警模型 灰色关联法 两步聚类分析方法 

分 类 号：R95[医药卫生—药学]