基于变化趋势和气象因子的加权负荷预测方法  

Weighted load forecasting method based on change trend and meteorological factors

作　　者：谭风雷 丁心志 张军 陈昊 何嘉弘 TAN Fenglei;DING Xinzhi;ZHANG Jun;CHEN Hao;HE Jiahong(EHV Branch Company,State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210002,China;Yunnan Electric Power Test&Research Institute Group Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650217,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China)

机构地区：[1]国网江苏省电力有限公司超高压分公司,南京211102 [2]云南电力试验研究院(集团)有限公司,昆明650217 [3]东南大学电气工程学院,南京210096

出　　处：《电力需求侧管理》2022年第3期66-72,共7页Power Demand Side Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51807028);国网江苏省电力有限公司重点科技项目(J2018014)。

摘　　要：针对采用趋势变化法预测电力负荷时,存在因未充分考虑气象因素而影响预测精度的问题,提出了一种基于变化趋势和气象因子的加权负荷预测方法。该方法综合考虑气温、湿度和天气类型3个气象因子,对基于变化趋势的电力负荷预测方法进行修正。分析了基于变化趋势的电力负荷预测方法存在的2个问题:未考虑外界因素对电力负荷变化趋势的影响和预测电力负荷时存在累计误差。在充分研究日内平均负荷变化率和点间平均负荷变化率的基础上,给出了算法的详细计算步骤,并将其应用于苏北某地区电力负荷的预测算例中。结果表明该方法的预测误差为3.42%,预测精度高且数据波动小,验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。Arming at the problem of not considering meteoro⁃logical factors when the trend change method is used to forecast power load,a weighted method of load forecasting based on change trend and meteorological factors is proposed,which is modified the power load forecasting method based on the change trend by con⁃sidering the three meteorological factors of temperature,humidity and weather type.Two problems of the power load forecasting meth⁃od based on the change trend including failure to consider the in⁃fluence of external factors and cumulative error by trend forecast⁃ing method are analyzed.The detailed calculation steps are given based on fully studying the daily average load change rate and the average load change rate between points,which is applied to an ex⁃ample of power load forecasting in a certain area of northern Jiang⁃su.Finally,the results show that the average relative error of the method is 3.42%with high forecasting accuracy and small data fluctuating,which verifies its validity and feasibility.

关 键 词：气象因子 电力负荷 负荷预测 日内平均负荷变化率 点间平均负荷变化率 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]