脆弱性多因素耦合作用下空管亚安全态识别  

Sub-safety state identification of ATC under multi-factor coupling of vulnerability

作　　者：岳仁田[1] 张知波 YUE Rentian;ZHANG Zhibo(College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第4期8-14,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金民航联合研究基金资助(U1533112)。

摘　　要：为有效防控空中交通管制(ATC)导致的航空事故和不安全事件,科学精准地识别空管运行亚安全态。首先,在脆弱性理论的基础上,得到ATC运行系统脆弱性的概念;然后,构建脆弱性因素耦合模型,分析特征要素演化过程中系统运行状态的变化特点,并参考免疫学理论分析亚安全态的本质;最后,利用N-K模型计算不同脆弱性因素耦合值作为评估各特征要素边界集合,利用云模型逆向云发生器评估特征要素边界,综合所有脆弱性因素,并验证系统最终运行状态。结果表明:双因素耦合系统暴露度为0.0949,系统运行状态偏离0.0776,系统状态恢复0.0570,系统最终状态为0.9621,3因素耦合分别为0.3417,0.3084,0.2015,0.8599,4因素耦合分别为0.8610,0.8779,0.5417,0.6638,与验证结果基本一致;亚安全状态出现在系统暴露度大于敏感度阶段,此时系统脆弱性演化过程为暴露度—适应度—敏感度—适应度。In order to effectively prevent and control aviation accidents and unsafe events caused by ATC,the sub-safety state of ATC operation was scientifically and accurately identified.Firstly,based on vulnerability theory,the concept of ATC operation system vulnerability was obtained.Secondly,the coupling model of vulnerability factors was constructed to analyze the change characteristics of system operation state in the evolution process of characteristic factors,and the essence of sub-safety state was analyzed referring to immunology theory.Finally,N-K model was used to calculate coupling values of different vulnerability factors as boundary set of characteristic elements,and the cloud model reverse cloud generator is used to evaluate the boundary of characteristic elements.All vulnerability factors are integrated,and the final operation state of the system is verified.The results show that the exposure degree of two-factor coupling system is 0.0949,and deviation of system operation state from 0.0776,the recovery of system state from 0.0570,and final state of the system is 0.9621.Three-factor couplings are 0.3417,0.3084,0.2015,0.8599,respectively,and four-factor couplings 0.8610,0.8779,0.5417,0.6638,which are basically consistent with verification results.Sub-safety state occurs in the stage of system exposure greater than sensitivity,and the evolution process of system vulnerability is exposure-fitness-sensitivity-fitness.

关 键 词：脆弱性 空中交通管制(ATC) 亚安全态 多因素耦合 云模型 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]