新疆新一代区域数值预报业务系统客观检验分析  

Objective Test and Analysis of the New Generation of Regional Numerical Forecast Service System in Xinjiang

作　　者：蓝俊 高华 张祖熠 张海亮 马玉芬[1] 窦刚 LAN Jun;GAO Hua;ZHANG Zuyi;ZHANG Hailiang;MA Yufen;DOU Gang(Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China;Fujian Meteorological Information Center,Fuzhou 350001,China;Institute of Urban Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100089,China;Fujian Meteorological Science Institute,Fuzhou 350001,China;Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]福建省气象信息中心,福建福州350001 [3]北京城市气象研究院,北京100089 [4]福建省气象科学研究所,福建福州350001 [5]新疆气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2022年第2期69-77,共9页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项(2018YFC1507105)。

摘　　要：运用MET检验工具,对新一代乌鲁木齐区域数值预报业务系统(RMAPS-CA)和目前业务运行系统(DOGRAFS)各季节业务模式预报性能进行对比检验分析。结果表明,相较于DOGRAFS系统,RMAPS-CA系统具有更高的空间分辨率和预报检验评分,预报能力明显提高。具体表现为:(1)对于高空要素预报,RMAPS-CA系统温度预报在中低层效果优于DOGRAFS系统,高层略差于DOGRAFS;RMAPS-CA系统位势高度春、秋、冬季的预报效果整体上优于DOGRAFS,夏季则各有优劣。(2)从地面要素预报结果看,夏季RMAPS-CA系统的温度预报偏差大于DOGRAFS系统,其余季节RMAPS-CA系统的温度预报效果整体优于DOGRAFS系统;春季RMAPS-CA系统的10m风速预报偏差大于DOGRAFS系统,其余季节RMAPS-CA系统的10m风速预报效果整体优于DOGRAFS系统;从24 h累计降水检验结果看,RMAPS-CA系统预报效果整体优于DOGRAFS系统,尤其在小量级降水预报RMAPS-CA系统TS评分均高于DOGRAFS系统。(3)从强降水个例分析看,对于降水落区与降水强度、站点降水和降水评分,RMAPS-CA系统的降水预报效果优于DOGRAFS系统。The performance of the new generation of regional numerical forecast system RMAPS-CA and the current operational system DOGRAFS in four seasons was compared and analyzed by using the Model Evaluation Tools(MET).The results show that the RMAPS-CA system has a higher spatial resolution than the DOGRAFS system,and the prediction capability of RMAPS-CA is significantly improved.The specific performance is:(1)For the forecast of high altitude,the results of temperature in the middle and low layer of RMAPS-CA system was better than that of DOGRAFS system,and the high layer was slightly worse than DOGRAFS system;RMAPS-CA system was superior to DOGRAFS in spring,autumn and winter,but had its advantages and disadvantages in summer.(2)For the forecast of ground,the forecast effect of the 2 m temperature of RMAPS-CA system was worse than that of DOGRAFS system in summer and better in other seasons;the forecast effect of the 10 m wind speed of RMAPS-CA system was worse in spring and better in other seasons;The verification of accumulated precipitation from 24-hour showed that the effect of RMAPS-CA system was better than that of DOGRAFS system,especially for small precipitation.(3)From the analysis of the typical precipitation process,for the precipitation area and precipitation intensity,station precipitation,and precipitation score,the effect of RMAPS-CA system was better than that of DOGRAFS system.

关 键 词：RMAPS-CA 区域模式 检验分析 分辨率 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]