贸易政策不确定性影响企业生存的效应与机制研究  

Research on the Effect and Mechanism of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Firm Survival

作　　者：张慧 彭璧玉[2] 杨永聪[1] ZHANG Hui;PENG Bi-yu;YANG Yong-cong(Research Center for Cantonese Merchants,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510006,China;School of Economics and Management,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学粤商研究中心,广州510006 [2]华南师范大学经济与管理学院,广州510006

出　　处：《上海对外经贸大学学报》2022年第3期5-24,共20页Journal of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“政府补贴影响企业生存的效应、机制及优化路径研究”(项目编号:19YJC790183);广东省普通高校青年创新人才类项目“经济政策不确定性影响企业退出决策的效应、机制及优化路径研究”(项目编号:2018WQNCX031)的共同资助。

摘　　要：利用2000~2014年中国微观企业数据,考察贸易政策不确定性影响企业生存的效应与机制。结果显示,贸易政策不确定性显著阻碍了企业生存。平均而言,贸易政策不确定性每增加一个单位,企业生存风险会上升12.51个百分点;相比之下,大规模企业、出口企业、外资企业、国有企业生存受贸易政策不确定性的负面影响更大,政府补贴可以缓解贸易政策不确定性对企业生存的负面影响。同时,贸易政策不确定性对高竞争行业企业生存冲击更大,提升行业资源配置效率和技术密集度可以有效抵御贸易政策不确定性的负面冲击。此外,东部区域、高市场化区域企业生存受贸易政策不确定性的负面影响更大。进一步的机制检验发现,实物期权和金融摩擦是贸易政策不确定性阻碍企业生存的重要渠道,从构成来看,贸易政策不确定性降低了企业固定资产、存货及生产率提升活动的投资,同时也使企业面临更加严峻的融资约束和资产负债问题,进而加剧了企业生存风险。这些结论可为政府部门及企业管理者在贸易政策不确定性时期降低企业生存风险提供有益的参考。Using China’s micro-firm data from 2000 to 2014,this paper studies the effects and mechanisms of trade policy uncertainty on firm survival.The results show that trade policy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on firm survival.On average,each unit increase of trade policy uncertainty is associated with 12.51 percentage point higher survival risk of firms.By contrast,trade policy uncertainty has a greater negative impact on the survival of large-scale firms,export firms,foreign-funded firms,and state-owned firms,and government subsidies can promote firm survival in the period of trade policy uncertainty.At the same time,trade policy uncertainty has a greater impact on the survival of firms in highly competitive industries,and improving industry resource allocation efficiency and technology intensity can effectively resist the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty.In addition,the survival of firms in the eastern region and the high-market region are more negatively affected by trade policy uncertainty.Further mechanism research shows that real options and financial frictions are the important channels through which trade policy uncertainty restrains firm survival.In terms of composition,trade policy uncertainty reduces firm investment in fixed assets,inventories and productivity promotion activities,and at the same time makes firms face more severe financing constraints and asset and liability problems,and then intensifies the risk of firm survival.The findings of this paper provide a useful reference for government departments and firm managers to reduce the survival risk of firms in the period of trade policy uncertainty.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 企业生存 实物期权 金融摩擦 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]