中国增值税转嫁、归宿及减税效应:一般均衡分析  

VAT Shifting,Incidence and Reduction Effect in China:Based on General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：汪昊 郭玉清[2] 陆毅[3,4] WANG Hao;GUO Yuqing;LU Yi(School of Public Finance and Taxation, Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics, NanKai University;School of Economics and Management, National Institute for Fiscal Studies, Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财政税务学院,102206 [2]南开大学经济学院,300071 [3]清华大学经济管理学院,100084 [4]清华大学财政税收研究所,100084

出　　处：《经济研究》2022年第2期73-89,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA070、20&ZD079、20&ZD169);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973069)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于一般均衡税收归宿理论和模型,综合运用GDP价格基准、差别税收归宿和一次性总付税,构建了一套间接税归宿测算方法。对中国增值税转嫁和归宿测算的结果显示:整体上,增值税39%转嫁给劳动,61%转嫁给资本,劳动和资本的增值税负担分别为5.6%和12%,代表性消费者不负担增值税;增值税归宿在不同行业间存在明显差异,制造业劳动和资本增值税负担最高,分别为1.7%和4.4%,房地产业消费者增值税负担最高,为8.1%。在此基础上,进一步测算了2017年以来全面降低增值税法定税率改革的经济效应,结果显示:减税提高了劳动与资本的边际收益率,促进了消费、投资和GDP增长,增值税减税更有利于提高资本收益率和促进投资,同时增值税减税还有利于缩小城乡居民收入差距。Tax incidence plays a central role in the evaluation of tax polices(Marion & Muehlegger,2011).As the largest tax revenue in China,the value-added tax(VAT) revenue in 2021 is CNY 6.4 trillion,accounting for about 37% of the total tax revenue.The issue of who ultimately bear the VAT burden affects the judgment of the effect of VAT,as well as the formulation of VAT reform and policies.Therefore,the relevant research is of important theoretical and practical significance.Estimating incidence of indirect taxes such as VAT mainly follows three technical routes.First,traditional method assumes that the net tax price maintains unchanged,and the VAT shift to consumers by raising the price.Second,local equilibrium method assumes that the net tax price changes in a certain market,and the VAT is shared by enterprises and consumers.Third,general equilibrium method assumes that the net tax price changes in all markets,and the VAT is shared by labor,capital and consumption.Different research methods and technical routes have their own applicable conditions and research perspectives,but they all lay a foundation for the study of VAT shifting and incidence.Although the general equilibrium method is more detailed in the measurement of tax shifting and incidence,but it requires higher accuracy.The current general equilibrium method is still imperfect in measuring the indirect tax incidence.Based on the existing research and the general equilibrium tax incidence theory,this paper constructs a set of methods to measure the indirect tax incidence and strives to measure the impact of tax price and incidence more accurately.For this reason,this paper comprehensively uses three methods:setting GDP price as the numeraire,excluding other factors influencing price changes by means of differential tax incidence,and using the lump sum tax instead of VAT to calculate pre-tax price.Using the above methods,this paper,for the first time,calculated the incidence of VAT in various industries after replacing the business tax with a VAT based on the

关 键 词：增值税 税收转嫁 税收归宿 经济效应 可计算一般均衡(CGE) 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]