基于PSR与贝叶斯网络的城市内涝灾害情景分析  

Scenario analysis of urban waterlogging disaster based on PSR and Bayesian network

作　　者：李雯[1] 姜仁贵[1,2] 解建仓 朱记伟[1] 赵勇[2] 杨思雨[1] LI Wen;JIANG Rengui;XIE Jiancang;ZHU Jiwei;ZHAO Yong;YANG Siyu(State Key Laboratory of Eco hydraulics in Northrest Arid Region,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydroporuer Research,Beijing 100038.China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,西安710048 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《给水排水》2022年第4期125-131,共7页Water & Wastewater Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51509201);国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401409);陕西省青年科技新星(2020KJXX-092);陕西省教育厅重点科学研究计划(21JT028)。

摘　　要：气候变化和城市化进程加快双重影响下,城市内涝灾害事件频发广发,灾害损失严重,受到广泛关注.基于贝叶斯网络模型将城市内涝灾害事件划分为压力-状态-响应3个阶段,采用Neti-ca软件对正常和极端状态下城市内涝灾害事件演化过程进行分析,通过揭示内涝灾害事件动态演化过程为城市防洪减灾、应急管理及其科学应对提供理论依据.以西安市典型内涝灾害事件为例对模型进行应用,结果表明:正常状态下,最大降水强度和单次降水历时在偏大范围概率较大,但平均降雨在偏小范围概率较大,说明城市内涝灾害事件具有降雨量大且时间集中的特性;中心城断路个数和受灾面积在内涝发生时极有可能受到波及,且应急预案多为Ⅱ级,说明城市内涝灾害一旦发生,造成的影响较为严重.极端状态下,当最大降水强度达到最大范围时,会发生较为严重的城市内涝,此时最大积水深度、中心城积水断路个数以及受灾面积都极有可能达到最大范围;当最大积水深度达到最大范围时,防汛救援人数达到最大范围,但应急响应速度提高较少,因此可以加强模拟演练和快速应急决策提高应急响应速度,减少城市内涝灾害损失.Under the dual influence of climate change and accelerated urbanization process,urban waterlogging disasters occur frequently and extensively,resulting in serious disaster losses,which attracts widespread attention.According to the Bayesian network model,urban waterlogging disaster events were divided into 3 stages:Pressure-State-Response.Netica software was used to analyze the evolution process of urban waterlogging disaster events under normal conditions and extreme conditions.By revealing the dynamic evolution process of waterlogging disaster events,this paper provides a theoretical basis for urban flood control and disaster reduction,emergency management and scientific response.The typical waterlogging disaster events in Xi’an were taken as an example to apply the model.The results show that the probability of maximum precipitation intensity and single precipitation period in a large range is higher under normal conditions,but the probability of average precipitation in a small range is higher,indicating that urban waterlogging disaster events have the characteristics of large rainfall and time concentration.The number of broken roads and damage area are likely to be affected when waterlogging occurs,and most of the emergency plans are gradeⅡ,indicating that once urban waterlogging occurs,the impact will be serious.In the extreme state,when the maximum precipitation intensity reaches the maximum range,more serious urban waterlogging will occur.At this time,the maximum water depth,the number of broken roads and the damage area are most likely to reach the maximum range.When the maximum water depth reaches the maximum range,the number of rescue workers reaches the maximum range,but the speed of emergency response is less improved.Therefore,the simulation drill can be strengthened and the emergency decision can be made quickly to improve the emergency response speed,so as to reduce the losses caused by urban waterlogging disaster.

关 键 词：城市内涝灾害 应急管理 情景演化 贝叶斯网络 PSR模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]