大风浪条件下易流态化固体散货船航行风险预评估系统  

Navigational Risk Pre-Evaluation System for Bulk Ships Carrying Cargo Subject to Fluidization in Heavy Sea

作　　者：刘大刚[1] 封室丞 王康辉 赵伟 张增海 张宇彤[3] LIU Dagang;FENG Shicheng;WANG Kanghui;ZHAO Wei;ZHANG Zenghai;ZHANG Yutong(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;Typhoon&Marine Weather Forecasting Centre of National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081,China;Dalian Meteorological Bureau,Dalian 116001,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]国家气象中心台风和海洋气象预报中心,北京100081 [3]大连市气象局,辽宁大连116001

出　　处：《中国航海》2022年第1期18-23,共6页Navigation of China

基　　金：中国国家气象中心天气预报成果业务转化准入项目——恶劣天气条件下船舶风险动态预评估系统。

摘　　要：针对易流态化固体散货船北上返回国内航线事故频发,而目前又缺少相应的气象安全保障服务产品的现状,采用风险分析理论和模糊综合评价方法,并使用国家气象中心的细网格、短时间步长的风、浪和海流预报资料,研发一种针对易流态化固体散货船在大风浪中的航行风险预评估系统。该系统已在国家气象中心网站上运行,可为从事易流态化固体散货船经营的航运企业和船长提供一种新型航行安全保障的气象服务产品。结果表明:使用该系统可望提前预判易流态化固体散货船北上航行的风险状况,从而避免事故的发生。A number of accidents involving ships carrying cargo subject to fluidization have happened on the route northward back to China. They might have been avoided if the ships had had appropriate technical support. A navigational risk pre-evaluation system is developed for the bulk ships carrying cargo of the kind based on the risk analysis theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The fine data of wind, wave and current issued by China National Meteorological Center are input to the evaluation system, which has been, as one of the services for shipping companies and ship masters, available on the web site of China National Meteorological Center.

关 键 词：气象安全保障 海事安全 风险预评估 大风浪天气 易流态化固体散货船 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] U695.27[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]