街头无偿献血人数预测模型的探讨  

Prediction model of the number of street voluntary blood donors

作　　者：毕岐勇[1] 王志丽[1] 陈霄[1] BI Qiyong;WANG Zhili;CHEN Xiao(Beijing Red Cross Blood Center,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市红十字血液中心,北京100088

出　　处：《中国输血杂志》2022年第4期420-423,共4页Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion

摘　　要：目的根据北京地区天气因素与街头无偿献血人数的关系,建立献血人数预测模型,为无偿献血者的招募提供参考。方法收集2018年1月~2019年10月的天气和街头献血者数据,构建GAM模型和ARIMA模型,利用2019年11月~12月献血人数和天气数据验证2个模型的预测效果。结果GAM模型显示:风力4~5级时,献血人数是1~2级的0.895倍(95%CI:0.805,0.995),周末献血人数是工作日的1.562倍(95%CI:1.510,1.617),法定节假日是工作日的1.779倍(95%CI:1.035,3.055);环境温度与献血人数呈现倒J型,最高温度为25℃时,献血者最多;GAM模型2d预测准确率为92.14%,总体准确率为(84.46±11.12)%,ARIMA模型2d预测准确率为90.55%,总体准确率为(87.65±9.3)%。结论街头献血人数受节假日、大风和环境温度等因素影响,GAM近期预测效果优于远期效果,ARIMA模型预测效果更稳定,综合利用2种预测模型对指导献血招募工作具有一定帮助。Objective To explore the relationship between climate factors and the number of street voluntary blood donors in Beijing and develop a reliable predictive model,so as to provide reference for donor recruitment.Methods The data of weather and the number of street blood donors from January 2018 to October 2019 were collected to formulate generalized additive model(GAM)and autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA),and the predicative accuracy of the two models was assessed using data from November to December 2019.Results GAM indicated that the number of donors decreased when the wind force was 4 to 5(95%CI:0.805,0.995),and the number on weekends and official holidays was 1.562(95%CI:1.510,1.617)and 1.779(95%CI:1.035,3.055)times that of the working day respectively.The number of blood donors increased with the elevation of temperature until 25℃,then declined with temperature increasing slowly.The two-day predictive accuracy of GAM and ARIMA was 92.14%and 90.55%,with overall accuracy at(84.46±11.12)%and(87.65±9.3)%,respectively.Conclusion Considering official holiday,strong wind and temperature,etc,the ARIMA model runs stable overall,while GAM is good at short-term prediction.The comprehensive use of two predictive models is helpful in guiding the recruitment of blood donors.

关 键 词：无偿献血 广义相加模型 ARIMA模型 预测 

分 类 号：R193.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]