A Binomial Model Approach: Comparing the R0 Values of SARS-CoV-2 rRT-PCR Data from Laboratories across Northern Cyprus  

作　　者：Nazife Sultanoglu Nezihal Gokbulut Tamer Sanlidag Evren Hincal Bilgen Kaymakamzade Murat Sayan 

机构地区：[1]Department of Medical Microbiology and Clinical Microbiology,Faculty of Medicine,Near East University,Nicosia,99138,Cyprus [2]DESAM Research Institute,Near East University,Nicosia,99138,Cyprus [3]Department of Mathematics,Near East University,Nicosia,99138,Cyprus [4]Faculty of Medicine,Kocaeli University,Clinical Laboratory,PCR Unit,Kocaeli,41001,Turkey

出　　处：《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》2021年第8期717-729,共13页工程与科学中的计算机建模（英文）

摘　　要：Northern Cyprus has implemented relatively strict measures in the battle against the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The measures were introduced at the beginning of the COVID-19pandemic, in order to prevent the spread of the disease. One of these measures was the use of two separate realtime reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) tests for SARS-CoV-2 referred to as the doublescreening procedure, which was adopted following the re-opening of the sea, air and land borders for passengersafter the first lockdown. The rRT-PCR double screening procedure involved reporting a negative rRT-PCR testwhich was carried in 72 to 120 h before departure whilst presenting no known symptoms of the COVID-19and performing a second rRT-PCR test at the point of arrival. This study compares the results of SARS-CoV-2rRT-PCR tests performed on incoming flight passengers from the 1st July to 9th of September 2020 to NorthernCyprus. The rRT-PCR test results collected by the Near East University (NEU) DESAM COVID-19 laboratory werecompared with the rRT-PCR test results collected by the Ministry of Health and/or private COVID-19 laboratoriesin Northern Cyprus. This comparative study was conducted using binomial distribution. In addition, by applyingthe Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model to Northern Cyprus, overall basic reproduction number(R0) value of the COVID-19 was analysed for the same time period to act as a threshold for this comparison.In both the statistical and SEIR mathematical model, R0 was calculated. It was assumed that, the more similarthe R0 results of NEU DESAM COVID-19 laboratory and other laboratories were with the overall R0 value ofNorthern Cyprus, the more reliable the results would be. We calculated that the median R0 values of the NEUDESAM COVID-19 laboratory and other laboratories performing the SARS-CoV-2 rRT-PCR on air passengersduring the studied period to be 0.96 and 1.29, respectively, compared to Northern Cyprus median R0 value whichwa

关 键 词：COVID-19 tests performed basic reproduction number statistical analysis comparison 

分 类 号：R73[医药卫生—肿瘤]