基于TIGGE资料的降水预报不确定性传递研究  

Uncertainty Propagation of Precipitation Forecasts Based on TIGGE Data

作　　者：屈博 马红亮 俞彦 方园皓[3] QU Bo;MA Hong-liang;YU Yan;FANG Yuan-hao(Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Yellow River Water Resources Protection Institute,Zhengzhou 450003,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院,郑州450003 [2]黄河水资源保护科学研究院,郑州450003 [3]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2022年第5期14-19,共6页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508400);河南省青年科学基金项目(212300410202);水利部水科学与水工程重点实验室开放基金项目(520039012)。

摘　　要：揭示降水不确定性在水文过程中的传递特征是气象水文耦合预报研究的关键环节,可为进一步加强流域水资源管理、提高农业灌溉保障能力提供有力支撑。利用TIGGE资料中心CMA、CMC、ECMWF、NCEP和UKMO 5个模式降水集合预报(127个集合成员)驱动分布式新安江模型,生成2010-2013年涪江流域汛期径流集合预报。在此基础上,从精度和锐度两个方面,定量分析降水不确定性在水文过程的传递特征及其随预见期的变化规律。结果表明,降水预报经过水文过程后,其精度和锐度在不同年份、不同预见期均大幅提升。但随着预见期的延长,对精度的改进效果逐渐减小,而对锐度的改进效果则不断增大。Revealing the propagation characteristics of precipitation uncertainty in hydrological process is the key element of hydrometeorological forecasts, which can provides strong support for the improvements of watershed water resources management and agricultural irrigation. In this paper, the precipitation prediction from 5 different TIGGE center(CMA、CMC、ECMWF、NCEP and UKMO) were used to drive the distributed Xinanjiang model to generate the runoff ensemble forecast in flood season of The Fujiang River basin from 2010 to 2013.On this foundation, the propagation characteristics and temporal changes of precipitation uncertainty were analyzed quantitatively in accuracy and sharpness. The results indicated that both accuracy and sharpness of precipitation forecasts were significantly improved after hydrological process in different years and different prediction periods. However, with the prolongation of prediction period, the improvement effect on precision decreases gradually, while the improvement effect on sharpness increases continuously.

关 键 词：TIGGE降水 不确定性传递 径流预报 涪江流域 水资源管理 

分 类 号：S27[农业科学—农业水土工程] TV121[农业科学—农业工程]