导致航班延误的暴雨研究--以2018年7月11日四川盆地暴雨为例  

A study on the rainstorm that causes flight delays——An event of rainstorm over Sichuan Basin on July 11, 2018

作　　者：刘海文 侯劭禹 毛江南 巩远发[3] LIU Haiwen;HOU Shaoyu;MAO Jiangnan;GONG Yuanfa(College of Air Traffic Management,CAUC,Tianjin 300300,China;Hebei Weather Modification Office,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300 [2]河北省人工影响天气办公室,石家庄050021 [3]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都610225

出　　处：《中国民航大学学报》2022年第2期6-13,共8页Journal of Civil Aviation University of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42075008);民航安全能力建设资金项目(20600822)

摘　　要：暴雨是导致航班发生大面积延误的主要恶劣天气之一。利用中国气象局逐小时降水加密观测资料、美国环境预报中心(NCEP,National Centers for Environmental Prediction)再分析数据(FNL,final reanalysis data)全球分析资料以及FY-2E卫星红外云图,采用天气分析和中尺度数值模拟等方法对2018年7月11日四川盆地暴雨(简称7.11暴雨)进行研究。研究结果表明:强降水主要发生在7月11日02时和7月11日08时,前者属于夜间降水,后者属于白天降水;500 hPa高度上贝加尔湖低涡延伸至四川盆地的西风槽、700 hPa高度上位于四川盆地的西南低涡和切变线、西太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)和台风“玛莉亚”是导致7.11暴雨的主要天气系统;WRF(weather research forecast)模式能够较好地模拟24 h累积降水的空间分布,但其对7.11暴雨的日变化模拟不佳,且其模拟的西南低涡维持时间比实际情况要短。Rainstorm is one of the main bad weathers that cause large-scale flight delays.The rainstorm in Sichuan Basin on July 11,2018(7.11 rainstorm hereafter)was analyzed using the national hourly encrypted precipitation data,National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)-final reanalysis data(FNL)and FY-2E infrared cloud chart,by the methods of weather analysis and medium scale numerical simulation.The results showed that the heavy rainfall on July 11 occurred at 02∶00 am and 08∶00 am on the 11th.The former is a night rain,and the latter is a daytime precipitation.At 500 hPa,the Baikal Lake vortex extends to the Westerly trough of Sichuan Basin,at 700 hPa,the Southwest vortex and shear line located in the basin,the West Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)and typhoon Maria are the main weather patterns that affect the 7.11 rainstorm.The mesoscale numerical model weather research forecast(WRF)can better simulate the spatial distribution of the 24-hour accumulated precipitation,but the simulation result of daytime precipitation is not good.In addition,the duration of the southwest vortex simulated by the model is shorter than that of the actual situation.

关 键 词：暴雨 诊断分析 数值模拟 四川盆地 西南低涡 航班延误 

分 类 号：P447[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] V355[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]