地质灾害精细化气象风险预警模型研究——以黄冈市为例  

Refined Meteorological Risk Early Warning Model of Geological Disasters—A Case Study of Huanggang City

作　　者：朱文慧 邹浩 肖炜波 李又升 李广 ZHU Wenhui;ZOU Hao;XIAO Weibo;LI Yousheng;LI Guang(Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;Hubei Geological Bureau Third Geological Brigade,Huanggang438000,China;Geological Environmental Center of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430034,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]湖北省地质局第三地质大队,湖北黄冈438000 [3]湖北省地质环境总站,湖北武汉430034

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2022年第3期119-126,共8页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：湖北省地质灾害综合防治体系建设重点项目(Z195110010003)。

摘　　要：防灾减灾体系建设日益成为目前社会关注的重点,地质灾害气象风险预警是地质灾害综合防治体系建设的重要内容之一。地质灾害气象风险预警是否能够有效防灾取决于地质灾害气象风险预警模型合理与否,黄冈市地质灾害气象风险预警结果存在区域不一致、等级偏差明显的状况,急需以更精细、合理的空间尺度构建地质灾害气象风险预警模型,提高预警结果的可信度。以近十年黄冈市地质灾害为研究对象,基于研究区地质环境综合因素分析,确定了地质灾害的评价指标,并根据评价指标的分级将黄冈市按照150m×150m的栅格单元划分为413个地质背景区和4个等级的地质灾害潜势度区;通过地质灾害与降雨的关联性分析,提出区内有效降雨量统计公式;采用第二代显式统计预警模型建立了黄冈市地质灾害气象风险预警模型,以历史降雨及其地质灾害事件检验了所建模型的适宜性,并据此对黄冈市2021年汛期降雨进行了地质灾害预警预测检验,结果表明预测结果与地质灾害发生的实际情况相符合,所建立的黄冈市地质灾害气象风险预警模型显著提升了气象风险预警的精度与可信度,可为区域性公众防灾自救和政府防灾管理提供科学依据。Meteorological risk early warning of geological disasters is an important part of the construction of disaster prevention and reduction system.Whether the early warning model is reasonable or not is the key point of Meteorological risk early warning of geological disasters.At this stage,there are regional in-consistencies and obvious grade deviation in the results of Meteorological risk early warning of geological disasters in Huanggang City.Therefore,it is urgent to build a Meteorological risk early warning model with a more refined and reasonable spatial&regional scale to improve the reliability of early warning results.Ai-ming at the slope of Huanggang City,this paper uses the second generation display statistical early warning model to study the probability quantitative model of disaster-causing factors.Based on the statistical ana-lysis of the distribution law and development characteristics of geological disasters in the area,the influen-cing factors of disaster development are determined,and the evaluation index is formed.Huanggang city di-vided into 150m×150mis used for potential degree evaluation of geological disasters,with 413geological background areas and four levels of geological disaster potential degree areas;through the correlation analy-sis between geological disasters and rainfall,the statistical formula of effective rainfall in the area is put for-ward,and the Me-teorological risk early warning model of geological disasters in Huanggang city is estab-lished;then,the rationality of the model is tested by historical rainfall and disaster events,and the predic-tion and test of geological disaster early warning is carried out for the rainfall in the flood season of Huang-gang City in 2021.The results show that the Meteorological risk early warning model of geological disas-ters in Huanggang city established in this paper significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of Me-teorological risk early warning,and provides a scientific basis for public disaster prevention and self rescue and gover

关 键 词：地质灾害 精细化气象风险预警模型 地质背景分区 潜势度分区 黄冈市 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P694[天文地球—地质学]