社会信任可以提升分析师盈余预测质量吗-来自中国市场的证据  被引量:5

Can Social Trust Improve Analyst Forecast Quality?-Evidence from China

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作  者:刘静[1] 吴启富[2] 康漫 郑瑶 LIU Jing;WU Qi-fu;KANG Man;ZHENG Yao(School of Accounting,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;School of Statistics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区:[1]首都经济贸易大学会计学院,北京100070 [2]首都经济贸易大学统计学院,北京100070

出  处:《数理统计与管理》2022年第3期554-570,共17页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基  金:首都经济贸易大学中青年骨干计划(00692054841242);首都经济贸易大学北京市属高校基本科研业务费专项资金.

摘  要:基于信息不对称理论,本文以2003-2018年中国A股上市公司为研究样本,考察社会信任与分析师盈余预测质量的关系。研究发现,社会信任能显著降低分析师盈余预测误差及分歧度。进一步地,在信息不对称程度较高、机构投资者持股比例较低、地区法律保护程度较弱的公司样本中,社会信任与分析师盈余预测误差、分歧度之间的负相关关系更为显著。此外,机制检验发现,社会信任提升了公司信息透明度及管理层业绩预告的精确度,抑制了公司违规行为。研究表明,作为正式制度的补充,社会信任有助于公司披露高质量信息,进而改善分析师所面临的信息环境,提升分析师盈余预测质量。本文不仅拓展了分析师盈余预测影响因素的相关文献,还从“非契约关系”视角探讨了社会信任的微观效应。本文结论对维护金融市场稳定具有重要启示,同时为投资者和监管者提供了决策建议。In the context of the informat ion asymmetry theory,we exploit Chinese A-share listed com-panies’data from 2003 to 2018 to exarnine the relationship between social trust and analyst forecast quality.We find that social trust can significantly reduce the error and dispersion of analyst earnings forecast.Further,this negative correlation is more pronounced when the firm has higher degree of in-formation asymmetry or lower institutional ownership,or locates in the region where the degree of legal protection is weaker.Moreover,mechanism analysis shows that social trust could improve both corporate transparency and management earnings forecast accuracy.In addition,trust might restrain corporate violations to some extent.This paper shows that as a supplement to formal regulation,social trust can promote corporate information disclosure quality,so as to ameliorate the information environment faced by analysts and improve their forecast accuracy.This paper not only develops the studies focus on the factors which might impact analyst earnings forecast,but also discusses the micro effects of social trust from the perspective of"non-contract relationship".The conclusion of this paper has important practical significance for remaining the stability of the financial sector.Besides,findings of this paper could shed light on strategies of both investors and regulators.

关 键 词:社会信任 分析师盈余预测质量 信息不对称 

分 类 号:F275[经济管理—企业管理] O212[经济管理—国民经济]

 

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