房价波动的消费挤出效应--基于我国70个大中城市面板数据分析  

The Squeezing Effect on Consumption of House Price Fluctuation--Based on Panel Data of 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities in China

作　　者：赵维树[1] 薛璟璟 ZHAO Wei-shu;XUE Jing-jing(Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《哈尔滨学院学报》2022年第5期73-76,共4页Journal of Harbin University

摘　　要：人口在城乡间的流动带来了巨大的住房刚性需求,不断上涨的住房价格对居民消费选择也产生了重要影响。基于我国70个大中城市2012-2018年房价波动与居民消费的实证分析表明,房价波动对居民的消费挤出效应明显,这一挤出效应主要是由于人们对未来预期不明确造成的,可以通过完善现有住房保障机制、构建健康有序的房地产长效发展体制、丰富居民的收入来源等途径来消除,从而提高居民消费水平。The flow of population between urban and rural areas has brought huge rigid demand for housing.The rising housing prices have also had an important impact on residents’consumption choices.Based on the empirical analysis of house price fluctuation and residents’consumption in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2012 to 2018,it shows that house price fluctuation has an obvious crowding out effect on residents’consumption.This squeezing effect is mainly caused by people’s unclear expectations for the future.It can be eliminated by improving the existing housing security mechanism,building a healthy and orderly long-term real estate development system,enriching residents’income sources and other ways to their consumption level.

关 键 词：房价波动 消费 挤出效应 

分 类 号：F293.31[经济管理—国民经济] F126.1