新冠肺炎疫情下管理层业绩预告归因行为研究  

Research on the Attribution Behavior of Management Earnings Forecast Under the Settings of COVID-19 Pandemic

作　　者：宋云玲[1] 武浩 常晓宇 黄晓蓓[2] SONG Yunling;WU Hao;CHANG Xiaoyu;HUANG Xiaobei(School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot 010021,China;School of Economics and Management,North China University of Technology,Beijing 100144,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学经济管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010021 [2]北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京100144

出　　处：《审计与经济研究》2022年第3期83-94,共12页Journal of Audit & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71762023;72072015);大学生创新创业训练计划国家级项目(202108154)。

摘　　要：基于A股上市公司2020年1—4季度业绩预告归因的研究发现,公司将业绩变化归因于新冠疫情的概率呈现随季度下降的趋势,坏消息归因于新冠疫情的概率显著高于好消息,且这种差异未随季度发生显著变化。业绩预告归因反映了管理层自利性归因与新冠疫情的叠加影响,且在特定情境下投资者能够识别自利性归因。研究结论从微观经济主体和利益相关者感知的角度展示了中国抗击新冠疫情的成效,也为监管部门规范重大外生冲击下的信息披露操纵行为提供了借鉴。Results based on the data of A-share companies in 2020 show that the trend companies attributing earnings changes to COVID-19 decreases with the passage of time.The probability of attribution to COVID-19 is significantly higher for bad news when compared to good news and this difference doesn t change over the quarters,indicating that COVID-19 attribution might be the combination of managements self-serving attribution and the impacts of COVID-19.However,under specific circumstances,investors are able to,at least to some extent,identify management s self-serving attributions.The above results demonstrate the effectiveness of China s fight against COVID-19 from the perspective of micro economic entity and market perception,and provide insights into how to regulate management disclosure manipulation under major exogenous shocks.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 业绩预告 自利性归因 市场反应 分析师跟踪 盈余管理 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]