腮腺良性肿瘤切除术后唾液瘘形成风险的预测模型分析  

Predictive Model Analysis of the Risk of Salivary Fistula after Resection of Benign Parotid Tumor

作　　者：周华[1] 李慧国 李君[1] 晋志伟 项欢 ZHOU Hua;LI Huiguo;LI Jun;JIN Zhiwei;XIANG Huan(Department of Stomatology,Wuhu Hospital Affi liated to East China Normal University(Wuhu Second People's Hospital),Wuhu 241000,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学附属芜湖医院(芜湖市第二人民医院)口腔科,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《中国美容医学》2022年第5期110-113,共4页Chinese Journal of Aesthetic Medicine

摘　　要：目的:探讨腮腺良性肿瘤切除术后唾液瘘形成的危险因素,并构建预测模型计算预测模型的预测效能。方法:选取2015年1月-2019年12月于笔者医院就诊的80例腮腺良性肿瘤患者为研究对象,所有患者均拟行腮腺良性肿瘤切除术,术后随访4周,根据患者术后是否发生唾液瘘分为唾液瘘组和对照组,比较两组患者临床资料,采用多因素Logistic回归方程分析腮腺良性肿瘤切除术后唾液瘘形成的危险因素;构建逻辑回归预测模型,分析该模型预测腮腺良性肿瘤切除术后唾液瘘形成风险的预测价值。结果:纳入的80例患者未出现失访病例,均完成随访。其中25例患者出现唾液瘘为唾液瘘组,剩余55例未发生唾液瘘的患者为对照组。对比两组患者临床资料后显示,两组患者在切除范围、术后压迫时间、伤口淀粉酶水平方面差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);多因素Logistic回归分析显示,伤口淀粉酶水平(OR=0.999)、切除范围(OR=3.790)、术后压迫时间(OR=1.450)是腮腺良性肿瘤切除术后唾液瘘形成的危险因素;使用切除范围、术后压迫时间及伤口淀粉酶水平构建逻辑回归预测模型,将预测模型带入ROC曲线分析后显示:AUC为0.921,敏感性为90.91%,特异度为84.00%(P<0.05)。结论:切除范围、术后压迫时间、伤口淀粉酶水平是腮腺良性肿瘤切除术后唾液瘘形成的危险因素,建立了预测腮腺良性肿瘤切除术后唾液瘘形成风险的模型,并进行了预测分析,得出了该逻辑回归模型能够早期预测腮腺良性肿瘤切除术后唾液瘘风险的结论,这为临床腮腺良性肿瘤切除术后唾液瘘的预防提供了很好的参考。Objective To investigate the risk factors of salivary fi stula after resection of benign parotid tumors and construct a predictive model to calculate the predictive performance of the predictive model.Methods A total of 80 patients with benign parotid gland tumors who were treated in our hospital from January 2015 to December 2019 were selected as the research subjects.All patients were planned to undergo resection of benign parotid tumors.The postoperative follow-up was 4 weeks,according to whether the patients occurred after surgery.Salivary fi stulas were divided into salivary fi stula group and control group.The clinical data of the two groups were compared.The multivariate logistic regression equation was used to analyze the risk factors of salivary fi stula after parotid benign tumor resection;a logistic regression prediction model was constructed and analyzed to predict the benign parotid gland.The predictive value of the risk of salivary fistula formation after tumor resection.Results The 80 included cases that did not appear to be lost to follow-up were followed up.Among them,25 patients with salivary fi stula were in the salivary fi stula group,and the remaining 55 patients without salivary fi stula were in the control group.Comparing the clinical data of the two groups of patients showed that there were statistical diff erences in the range of resection,postoperative compression time,and wound amylase levels between the two groups(P<0.05),multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that wound amylase levels(OR=0.999),resection range(OR=3.790),postoperative compression time(OR=1.450)are the results of parotid benign tumor resection Risk factors for the formation of salivary fi stula;use the range of resection,postoperative compression time,and wound amylase level to construct a logistic regression prediction model.After the prediction model is incorporated into the ROC curve analysis,it shows that the AUC is 0.921,the sensitivity is 90.91%,and the specifi city is 84.00%(P<0.05).Conclusion Resection

关 键 词：腮腺良性肿瘤 切除术 唾液瘘 危险因素 预测模型 

分 类 号：R739.81[医药卫生—肿瘤]