大型人员聚集活动的踩踏事故危险性定性模拟  

Qualitative simulation of stampede accidents risk in large crowd gathering activities

作　　者：刘卿 曹庆贵[2] 弭新 LIU Qing;CAO Qinggui;MI Xin(Laoshan Emergency Management Agency of Qingdao,Qingdao 266510,China;College of Safety and Environmental Engineering,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266510,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛市崂山区应急管理局,山东青岛266510 [2]山东科技大学安全与环境工程学院,山东青岛266510

出　　处：《西安科技大学学报》2022年第3期468-475,共8页Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology

摘　　要：为提高重大节日或者赛事时大型人员聚集活动的安全性,降低踩踏事故发生的危险性,通过收集已有事故进行总结归纳,分析得到大型人员聚集活动中踩踏事故发生的原因,构建出了大型人员聚集活动踩踏事故危险性模型,设计踩踏事故危险性定性模拟的规则,利用QSIM算法对踩踏事故危险性进行定性模拟研究,得出大型人员聚集活动中踩踏事故危险性的发展、变化规律,进一步分析得到影响踩踏事故发生与控制事故危险的关键性因素。结果表明,在受到环境干扰的情况下,如果不对人员进行安全管理与安全教育,不采取任何安全管控措施,公众不安全行为必将上升且整体状态必将恶化,最终导致踩踏事故的危险性明确升高;在公众受到不同强度的环境干扰、影响因素处于不同状态时,管理人员应当进行针对性的管理和教育,进一步提高公众的安全行为、应急观念与安全意识,进而有效降低踩踏事故发生的危险性。研究结果对进一步防控大型人员聚集活动中踩踏事故的发生提供了方向性建议。To improve the safety of large-scale gatherings and reduce the risk of stampede accidents in major festivals or events,a detailed analysis has been made of the past accidents with the reasons for those obtained in this paper.A stampede accident risk model of large crowd gathering activities was constructed,and the rules for qualitative simulation of stampede accident risk were determined.The QSIM algorithm was adopted to conduct the qualitative simulation research on stampede accident risk with the developing rules obtained,as well as the key factors resulting in the occurrence of accidents and the reduction in risks.The results show that:in the presence of environmental disturbance,without any safety management or safety education to the public,or without any safety control measures,the unsafe behaviors will inevitably be increasing and the overall situation deteriorating,which will eventually lead to a significant risk of stampede accidents.When the public is disturbed by the conditions of different intensity and the influencing factors are in different states,managers should conduct targeted management and education to the public to further improve the public’s safety behaviors,emergency concepts,and safety awareness,thereby reducing the risk of stampede accidents effectively.The research results provide a guidance for the further prevention and control of stampede accidents in large-scale gatherings of people.

关 键 词：大型人员聚集活动 踩踏事故 定性模拟 QSIM算法 不安全行为 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学]