Ensemble Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Based on CNOP-P Method:A Case Study of WRF Model and Two Typhoons  

作　　者：YUAN Shi-jin SHI Bo ZHAO Zi-jun MU Bin ZHOU Fei-fan DUAN Wan-suo 袁时金;施博;赵紫君;穆斌;周菲凡;段晚锁(School of Software Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804 China;Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 China;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 China)

机构地区：[1]School of Software Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804 China [2]Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 China [3]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 China [4]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 China

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》2022年第2期121-138,共18页热带气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Key Research and Development Program of China(2020YFA0608002);Key Project Fund of Shanghai 2020“Science and Technology Innovation Action Plan”for Social Development(20dz1200702);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42075141);Meteorological Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2142211);Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(13502150039/003)。

摘　　要：In this paper,we set out to study the ensemble forecast for tropical cyclones.The case study is based on the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameter(CNOP-P)method and the WRF model to improve the prediction accuracy for track and intensity,and two different typhoons are selected as cases for analysis.We first select perturbed parameters in the YSU and WSM6 schemes,and then solve CNOP-Ps with simulated annealing algorithm for single parameters as well as the combination of multiple parameters.Finally,perturbations are imposed on default parameter values to generate the ensemble members.The whole proposed procedures are referred to as the PerturbedParameter Ensemble(PPE).We also conduct two experiments,which are control forecast and ensemble forecast,termed Ctrl and perturbed-physics ensemble(PPhyE)respectively,to demonstrate the performance for contrast.In the article,we compare the effects of three experiments on tropical cyclones in aspects of track and intensity,respectively.For track,the prediction errors of PPE are smaller.The ensemble mean of PPE filters the unpredictable situation and retains the reasonably predictable components of the ensemble members.As for intensity,ensemble mean values of the central minimum sea-level pressure and the central maximum wind speed are closer to CMA data during most of the simulation time.The predicted values of the PPE ensemble members included the intensity of CMA data when the typhoon made landfall.The PPE also shows uncertainty in the forecast.Moreover,we also analyze the track and intensity from physical variable fields of PPE.Experiment results show PPE outperforms the other two benchmarks in track and intensity prediction.

关 键 词：ensemble forecast Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameter(CNOP-P) WRF parameter perturbation ensemble members simulated annealing algorithm 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]