基于IWRAP模型的跨海大桥建设通航风险研究  

Research on navigation risk of cross-sea bridge construction based on IWRAP model

作　　者：刘胜利[1] 李勤荣[1] 华昕培 郑欣蕊 董敏[1] LIU Shengli;LI Qinrong;HUA Xinpei;ZHENG Xinrui;DONG Min(Transport Planning and Research Institute Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2022年第5期47-53,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

摘　　要：为支撑跨海大桥建设决策,对拟建桥梁水域通航风险进行预测,采用IWRAP模型对通航风险进行量化,运用分布函数对观测桥梁水域航道/航路船舶流量进行拟合,构建风险分析模型,计算桥梁水域通航风险水平;根据设定桥梁通航标准,类比拟建桥梁水域内已建成桥梁桥区交通流分布情况,预测桥梁建成后船舶流量分布函数并计算通航风险水平,通过对比得出跨海大桥建设带来的通航风险变化。研究结果表明:运用IWRAP模型预测跨海大桥建设的通航风险较为合理。In order to support the decision on the construction of cross-sea bridge,and predict the navigation risk in the water area of the bridge to be built,the navigation risk was quantified by the IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Programme(IWRAP)model.The ship flow of the waterway/route in the water area of observed bridge was fitted by the distribution function,and a risk analysis model was established to calculate the navigation risk level of the water area of bridge.According to the setting bridge navigation standards,the distribution function of ship flow after the completion of the bridge was predicted with the analogy on the traffic flow distribution of the built bridge area in the water area of the bridge to be built,then the navigation risk level was calculated,and the the change of navigation risk caused by the construction of cross-sea bridge was obtained through the comparion.The results showed that it was reasonable to predict the navigation risk of cross-sea bridge construction by using the IWRAP model.

关 键 词：跨海大桥 IWRAP 通航风险 桥区通航 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]