碳达峰碳中和目标下公正转型对我国就业的挑战与对策  

Challenges and Measures of Just Transition on China's Employment under the Goal of Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality

作　　者：袁佳[1] 陈波[2] 吴莹[2] 刘诺 Yuan Jia;Chen Bo;Wu Ying;Liu Nuo(Research Institute,the People's Bank of China;Wuhan Branch,the People's Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行金融研究所 [2]中国人民银行武汉分行

出　　处：《金融发展评论》2022年第1期44-51,共8页Financial Development Review

摘　　要：在各国碳达峰碳中和目标下,全面考虑各方利益、提高社会公正性的“公正转型”在国际气候治理中日益受到重视。欧美等国正积极探索建立公正转型的机制和路径。我国要实现碳中和目标也将面临巨大挑战,可能对部分就业群体造成较大冲击。本文在整理欧美地区“公正转型”相关实践的基础上,对碳达峰碳中和目标下我国受影响的产业、就业以及公正转型成本进行了测算,发现碳中和创造的新就业岗位可覆盖高碳行业调整带来的岗位损失,但公正转型成本巨大。我国应加快制定公正转型政策框架,系统评估碳达峰碳中和对就业民生的影响,加强气候政策与就业、社保、财政、金融、产业及区域发展政策的协调,对受冲击较严重的部门,采取有针对性的措施,避免出现严重的失业问题。Under the goal of emission peak and carbon neutrality,the "just transition"that comprehensively considers the interests of all parties and improves social justice has attracted more and more attention in international climate governance.American and European countries are actively exploring the mechanism and path to realize just transition.China will also face great challenges to achieve the goal of carb on neutrality,which may have a great impact on some employment groups.Based on collecting international experiences of the just transition in western countries,this paper calculates China's industry and employment which is affected and the cost of just transition under the goal of emission peak and carbon neutrality,which finds that the new jobs created by carbon neutrality can cover the job losses caused by the adjustment of high-carbon industries,but the cost of just transition is huge.China should speed up the formulation of a policy framework of just transition,systematically evaluate the impact of emission peak and carbon neutrality on employment and people's livelihood,strengthen the coordination between climate regulation and policies of employment,social security,finance,industry and regional development,and take targeted measures for the severely impacted sectors to avoid serious unemployment.

关 键 词：碳达峰碳中和 公正转型 失业 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]