基于组合预测方法的郑州市货运周转量预测研究  

Research on Prediction of Freight Turnover in Zhengzhou Based on Combination Prediction Method

作　　者：徐烨昕 陆芬 XU Yexin;LU Fen(School of Management,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《洛阳理工学院学报（自然科学版）》2022年第2期81-86,共6页Journal of Luoyang Institute of Science and Technology：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：湖北省教育厅科学技术研究计划项目(B2020005).

摘　　要：郑州市是河南省省会、中原城市群的核心城市,是我国重要的交通枢纽。随着经济与物流业的迅速发展,郑州的综合运输体系能否支撑未来经济的进一步发展需求,是需要关注的问题。通过指数平滑法和灰色预测法对郑州市未来5年的货运周转量进行预测分析,以保障和促进经济的持续快速发展。在货运需求预测的基础之上,对郑州市货运周转量的潜力进行分析,提出建议,保证郑州市更快更好地发展。Zhengzhou is the capital of Henan Province,the core of the central plains urban agglomeration and an important hub city in China.With the rapid development of economy and logistics industry,whether the comprehensive transportation system of Zhengzhou can support the further development needs of economy in the future is a problem that needs attention.This paper forecasts and analyses the freight turnover of Zhengzhou in the next five years through exponential smoothing method and grey prediction method,so as to ensure and promote the sustained and rapid development of economy.Based on the freight demand forecast,this paper analyses the potential of freight turnover in the city,and puts forward some suggestions to ensure the faster and better development of Zhengzhou.

关 键 词：物流预测 指数平滑法 灰色预测法 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]