基于复杂网络演化博弈的绿色消费者对新能源汽车扩散的影响研究  

Research on The Influence of Green Consumers on The Diffusion of New Energy Vehicles Based on Complex Network Evolutionary Game

作　　者：王璐 马庆庆 杨劼 郑君君[2] WANG Lu;MA Qing-qing;YANG Jie;ZHENG Jun-jun(School of Management Science and Engineering,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China;School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山西太原030006 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,河北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2022年第4期74-85,共12页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72171180);山西财经大学青年科研基金资助项目(QN-202006);山西省哲学社会科学规划课题(2020YJ107)。

摘　　要：绿色消费行为是绿色产业发展的主要推动力。以市场需求侧与供给侧协调为思路,基于复杂网络演化博弈理论,构建新能源汽车扩散模型,研究绿色消费者对制造商微观决策与宏观新能源汽车扩散的影响。在小世界网络情境下进行仿真分析,结果表明:宏观上,绿色消费者溢价和绿色消费者比例的增加都能够促进新能源汽车扩散,但是二者的微观影响机制不同。绿色消费者溢价的增加总是使得演化稳定状态下所有制造商的平均收益都增加,而绿色消费者比例的增加可能导致所有制造商的平均收益都减少。在产业层面,绿色消费行为对新能源汽车扩散具有积极的促进作用,而在企业层面,绿色消费行为的作用并非总是积极的。因此,一方面,促进新能源汽车扩散需要加强对需求侧的重视。从扩大绿色消费者规模和提高绿色消费者溢价两方面考虑,政府应该通过制定激励机制或加大环保宣传等财税或非财税方式促使消费者环保意识的觉醒。另一方面,新能源汽车制造商应该制定恰当的营销策略促使绿色消费者对新能源汽车产生更多溢价;燃油汽车制造商能够从新能源汽车制造商的营销策略中搭便车,应避免与新能源汽车制造商进行恶性竞争。论文从影响因素和扩散机制两方面拓展了新能源汽车扩散理论研究体系,研究结论能够为提高新能源汽车扩散效率,构建有效的产业发展干预机制提供参考借鉴。As an alternative to traditional fuel vehicles,the advantages of new energy vehicles in energy conservation and emission reduction have attracted extensive attention from countries all over the world.The Chinese government also attaches great importance to the cultivation and development of the new energy vehicle industry,and takes the new energy vehicle industry as a strategic emerging industry.Although China has become the world’s largest market for electric vehicles,its market share is still limited.On the other hand,European countries have led the way in proposing timetables for banning the sale of fossil fuel vehicles due to energy and environmental concerns.China is also working on a timetable to stop the production and sale of fuel-powered cars.From the perspective of domestic new energy vehicle market development status and international energy environment situation,it is urgent and necessary to increase China’s new energy vehicle market share.The diffusion of new energy vehicles is studied in order to promote the market penetration of new energy vehicles.In the existing literature,the impact of policies and regulations on the diffusion of new energy vehicles has been exhaustively studied,but the role of green consumers in new energy vehicle diffusion has not been revealed.Because green consumption behavior is the main driving force for the development of green industry,it is necessary to explore the diffusion mechanism of new energy vehicle from the perspective of green consumers.Based on the complex network evolutionary game theory,a diffusion model of new energy vehicles is constructed to study the influence of green consumers on micro-decision making of the manufacturers’and macro new energy vehicle diffusion.Simulation analysis of China’s new energy vehicle industry in the context of a small-world network,based on the data in the existing literature,draws the following conclusions.(1)Both the increase in the premium of green consumers and the proportion of green consumers can promote the diff

关 键 词：新能源汽车 扩散 演化博弈 小世界网络 仿真 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理]