台风灾害经济损失评估研究进展  

Review on economic loss assessment of typhoon disasters

作　　者：姜露露 马仁锋[1,3] 袁海红[1,3] JIANG Lulu;MA Renfeng;YUAN Haihong(Department of Geography and Spatial Information Technology,Ningbo Universities Collaborative Innovation Center for land and marine spatial utilization and governance research,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China;Putuo High School of Zhejiang Province,Zhoushan 316100,China;Donghai Academy at Ningbo University of the New Type Key Think Tank of Zhejiang Province,Ningbo 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系,宁波陆海国土空间利用与治理协同创新中心,浙江宁波315211 [2]浙江省普陀中学,浙江舟山316100 [3]浙江省新型重点专业智库宁波大学东海战略研究院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《生态科学》2022年第3期252-263,共12页Ecological Science

基　　金：浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF22D010002);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41771174);浙江省自然科学基金青年项目(LQ18D010002)。

摘　　要：台风灾害对全球沿海地区社会经济系统具有重要影响,客观地评估和预测台风灾害经济损失,能提高区域灾前灾后决策科学性,降低台风灾害损失。利用文献分析法梳理台风灾害经济损失评估对象,评估视角-指标-数据源与处理,评估方法等。研究发现:(1)直接经济损失评估对象单一,以物质形态损失为主;间接经济损失评估对象多元,有待完善与体系化;(2)评估指标体系通用性低,台风强度、台风路径、地表事物布局及自然与社会经济要素相互关系被忽略;指标遴选忽视区域特征与典型性;评估数据以台风、历史灾情、社会经济等截面数据为主,新媒体、非结构化大数据等新兴数据正在被挖掘;(3)台风灾害直接经济损失评估法以回归模型、模糊、神经网络、可拓、AHP、DEA为主,间接经济损失评估法以投入产出、比例系数为主,社交媒体数据库损害评估模型用于物理损害和情绪损害评估。台风灾害经济损失评估视角聚焦经济社会可持续,但是缺乏对就业、收入、劳动市场、社会秩序恢复等的关注,其评估指标选择与权重确定、数据拓展,以及运用地理信息技术与巨灾保险等结合亟待深入研究。Typhoon disaster has a significant impact on the vulnerability of social and economic systems in coastal region of the world. Typhoon disaster losses should be objectively accessed and predicted to effectively improve the scientific decision-making pre-disasters and post-disasters and reduce the negative impact of typhoon disaster. Literature analysis was used to sort out the objects of economic losses assessment, assessment dimension-indicators-data sources and procedure,assessment methods, etc. The results show that:(1) the objects of direct economic losses assessment are single, mainly including material loss and direct economic loss. The objects of indirect economic loss assessment are diversified and need to be improved and systematized.(2) The evaluation index system has low universality, and the typhoon intensity, typhoon path, surface economic things layout and the relationship between nature and social and economic factors are ignored. The index selection ignores the regional characteristics and typicality. The assessment data are mainly cross-section data of typhoon, historical disaster, social economy, etc. New media, unstructured big data and other emerging data are mined.(3)Regression model, fuzzy, neural network, extension, AHP and DEA were used as the direct economic loss assessment methods for typhoon disasters. Meanwhile, input-output and proportional coefficient were used as the indirect economic loss assessment methods. Moreover, social media database damage assessment models were used for physical damage and emotional damage assessment. The perspective of typhoon disaster economic loss assessment focuses on economic and social sustainability, but it does not pay enough attention to employment, income, labor market, social order restoration, etc.Therefore, the selection and weight determination of assessment indicators, data expansion, and the combination of geographic information technology and catastrophe insurance need to be further studied.

关 键 词：台风灾害经济损失评估 评估视角 评估指标体系 台风路径 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]