美国通胀分析与当下有色市场  

Analysis of American Inflation and the Current Non-ferrous Metal Market

作　　者：胡海斌 冷安妍 吴景峰 HU Hai-bin;LENG An-yan;WU Jing-feng(Jiangxi Copper Company Limited,Nanchang 330006,Jiangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]江西铜业股份有限公司,江西南昌330006

出　　处：《铜业工程》2022年第2期96-100,共5页Copper Engineering

摘　　要：当前世界经济面临自“大萧条”以来的重大挑战,特别是美国通货膨胀指标居高不下,创下历史新高,为全球宏观经济运行和宏观经济政策制定带来较大的不确定性。美国通胀在2022年上半年持续攀升,2022年全年预计维持在历史高位水平。未来两三年,美国通胀预计势头不减,但中长期来看,随着货币政策的收紧、供需错配等因素常态化,未来通胀将从较高水平逐步回落。由于美国通胀以及后续美联储加息缩表政策对国际金融市场和有色金属价格具有重大影响,有必要对美国通胀的原因、动力和未来走向进行深入研究,为后市有色金属价格趋势预判提供借鉴和参考。The world economy is currently facing great challenges since the Great Depression.In particular,the inflation index in the United States remains high and hit a record high,which has brought greater uncertainty for the global macro-economic operation and macro-economic policy-making.US inflation will continue to climb in the first half of 2022 and remain at historically high levels throughout 2022.In the next two to three years,US inflation is expected to remain at high levels,but in the medium and long term,inflation will gradually fall from a relatively high level in the future with the normalization of factors such as the tightening of monetary policy and the mismatch between supply and demand.Since US inflation and the subsequent Fed’s policy of raising interest rates have a significant impact on the international financial markets and non-ferrous metal prices,it is necessary to conduct an in-depth study on the causes,motivations and future trends of US inflation,which to provide reference and guidance for future forecast of non-ferrous metal price trends.

关 键 词：通货膨胀预期 成本推动型通胀 货币政策 有色金属价格 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]