多式联运网络环境下的内河港口托运人选择分析  

Modelling the choice of shippers on inland river ports for in a multi-modal transportation network

作　　者：谭志加 曾宪扬 孟强[2] TAN Zhijia;ZENG Xianyang;MENG Qiang(School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;School of Civil and Environmental Engineering,National University of Singapore,Singapore 117576,Singapore)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,大连116026 [2]新加坡国立大学土木与环境工程系,新加坡117576

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2022年第5期1391-1401,共11页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71471068,71871037,71831002)。

摘　　要：港口经济腹地的确定是港口选址、功能与规模定位的重要依据.区别于传统定量分析基于地理距离的货物托运人对港口选择行为建模方法,本文首先构建连续-离散型网络结构,从而能够同时考虑稠密的城市道路、稀疏的区间路网和离散的水运系统的网络拓扑特征和货运需求空间连续分布特征,并在多式联运网络下计算托运人路径与港口的联合选择的广义运输成本,通过嵌套Logit模型来计算托运人的转运港选择概率,并将内河港口经济腹地定义为选择该港口概率最大的所有托运人或地点的集合.以长江经济带为实例研究,我们发现港口经济腹地不再以港口为中心形成的地理区域,而是沿着高速公路出入口进行扩散,因此本研究丰富了港口腹地分析的传统模型.本文提出的方法有利于港口选址与功能定位规划、港口与航运企业竞争策略制定.The determination of port hinterland is an important basis for port location,function and scale positioning.Different from the traditional quantitative analysis method based on geographical distance,this paper first constructs a continuous-discrete network structure.In this way,we can simultaneously consider the topological characteristics of dense urban roads,sparse highway network and discrete water transport system and the spatial continuously distribution of shipment demand.Therefore,the generalized transportation cost can be calculated to capture the cumulative choice probability of shippers on routes and ports in multi-modal transport network,which plots the hinterland of each inland river port.Taking the Yangtze River economic belt as an example,we find that the port hinterland is no longer a geographical neighbourhood of the port,but diffuses along the highway entrances and exits.This study enriches the traditional model of port hinterland analysis.The method proposed in this paper is conducive to the planning of port location and function positioning,and the formulation of competitive strategy between port and shipping enterprises.

关 键 词：内河运输 港口腹地 连续-离散型网络 多式联运 

分 类 号：U6-9[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]