活动地块理论框架下的地震物理预报展望  

Prospects of earthquake physical forecasting under the framework of active-tectonic block theory

作　　者：邵志刚[1] 王武星[1] 刘琦[1] 潘正洋 刘晓霞[1] 王芃[1] 魏文薪[1] 冯蔚[1] 尹晓菲 Zhigang Shao;Wuxing Wang;Qi Liu;Zhengyang Pan;Xiaoxia Liu;Peng Wang;Wenxin Wei;Wei Feng;Xiaofei Yin(Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting,Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所中国地震局地震预测重点实验室,北京100036

出　　处：《科学通报》2022年第13期1362-1377,共16页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1500501);国家自然科学基金(41474079)资助。

摘　　要：中国大陆强震孕育发生的关键科学问题主要包括:从板块到断层应力加载动力学过程、区域强震活动时空演化动力学过程、大陆强震原地复发动力学过程等.上述问题在活动地块理论框架下,基本研究方向可分为周边板块边界动力加载、活动地块划分及其变形机制、活动地块边界带与区域强震演化、大陆型强震原地复发动力学模型.相应地,中国大陆型强震物理预测研究的重点研究内容主要包括:(1)从板块到断层应力的加载过程,明确大陆强震孕育发生的动力来源;(2)基于震源物理模型,研究大陆型强震变形机制,为强震地点和震级预测提供支持,可称之为基于震源物理模型的综合概率预测;(3)大陆型强震复发动力学过程以及强震破裂动力学过程,为时间物理预测提供依据,可称之为强震动力学概率预测;(4)区域断裂系统与强震时空演化,分析区域强震成组时空演化及动力机制,实现区域强震成组活动和单个断层强震的物理预测.本文根据国内外研究进展和我国地震预报业务现状,对我国大陆强震孕育发生的现象或规律进行梳理与总结,尝试描述活动地块理论框架下的地震物理预报工作方向,期望能为我国地震物理预报起到抛砖引玉的作用.At present,earthquake forecasting in China mainly relies on the empirical methods summarized by previous researchers.While studying the physical mechanisms of effective empirical forecasting methods,it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the physical phenomena and patterns of the dynamic process of strong continental earthquakes,thereby improving the level of China’s earthquake forecasting business.To understand the dynamic process of strong continental earthquakes and promote the related work of earthquake physics prediction,the China Earthquake Administration officially launched the Sichuan-Yunnan National Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction Experimental Site in 2014.The environment in which strong earthquakes occur on the continental China is specific.Overall,the continental lithospheric medium is“vertically stratified and laterally divided”;the continental China can be divided into different active tectonic blocks based on the characteristics of neotectonic activity and current crustal deformation;strong shallow earthquakes within the continent mostly occur in the boundary zones of active tectonic blocks that undergo intense tectonic activities and crustal deformation.In view of this,the key scientific issues concerning the development and occurrence of strong earthquakes in continental China mainly include the dynamic process of stress loading from plates to faults,the dynamic process of the temporal and spatial evolution of strong regional earthquakes,and the dynamic process of the in situ recurrence of strong continental earthquakes.Under the framework of active tectonic block theory,the main research can be classified into the dynamic loading of surrounding plate boundaries,active block division and its deformation mechanism,the active block boundary zone and strong regional earthquake evolution,and dynamic models of the in situ recurrence of strong continental earthquakes.Correspondingly,the key research content of the physical prediction of strong earthquakes in continental China may mai

关 键 词：活动地块 大陆强震 物理预报 强震孕育发生机制 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]