粮食安全视角下我国小麦进口量波动趋势预测研究——基于ARIMA预测模型  

Prediction of Wheat Import Fluctuation Trend in China from the Perspective of Food Security——Based on Arima Prediction Model

作　　者：琚锐佳 李逸波[1] 朱文荟 JU Ruijia;LI Yibo;ZHU Wenhui(College of Economics and Management,Agricultural University of Hebei,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《安徽农学通报》2022年第10期27-30,共4页Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：河北省青年拔尖人才资助项目;河北省统计科学研究计划项目“河北省农业农村现代化指标体系构建与评价研究(项目编号2021HY25)”;2022年度河北省教育厅人文社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目:面向京津大都市需求的河北主要农产品供给策略与实施路径研究(ZD202213)。

摘　　要：当前,受到新冠疫情、自然灾害等多方面因素的影响,我国粮食安全不稳定性增加,小麦进口呈现新形势。现阶段,我国小麦进口量呈现明显上升趋势,增加了我国粮食安全风险,因此,需要对其下一阶段进口波动趋势进行预测研究,进而及时调整化解风险。该文从进口数量、进口来源国家、贸易逆差等方面分析了小麦进口特征,并利用中国海关总署公布的2019年01月至2021月12日我国小麦进口量月度数据,建立了ARIMA模型,对小麦未来半年进口趋势进行预测。结果表明:我国下一阶段小麦进口将继续保持上升态势;我国小麦进口来源依赖度比较高,粮食安全风险增加;小麦生产成本需进一步控制。因此,要依靠科技进步,强化供给结构调整;警惕进口风险,分散小麦进口市场;实行适度规模化经营,降低小麦生产成本。At present,under the influence of COVID-19,natural disasters and other aspects,food security instability is increasing,and food import is in a new development situation.At present,China′s wheat import volume shows an obvious upward trend,so it is of practical significance to forecast the fluctuation trend of its import in the next stage.This paper analyzes the current situation of wheat import from the import quantity,import source countries,trade deficit and other aspects,the ARIMA model is established based on the monthly wheat import data from January 2019 to December 2021 released by the General Administration of Customs of China to forecast the wheat import trend in the next six months.The result showed that China′s wheat import will continue to rise in the next stage,China′s wheat import source dependence is relatively high,food security risk increased;Wheat costs need to be further controlled.Therefore,we must put forward to improve the minimum purchase price policy of wheat and enhance farmers’ enthusiasm for planting grain.,guard against import risk and disperse wheat import market,implement system scale management,reduce wheat production cost.

关 键 词：小麦进口 趋势预测 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学]