中国经济增长的状态跃迁(1979—2020)——基于复杂系统视角的研究  

The Status Transition of China’s Economic Growth(1979-2020):A Study Based on a Complex Systems Perspective

作　　者：方毅[1] 孟佶贤 张屹山[1] Fang Yi;Meng Jixian;Zhang Yishan

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,长春130012 [2]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2022年第5期4-26,204,共24页Social Sciences in China

摘　　要：从整体性和历史性的视角刻画宏观经济增长过程,有利于从增长路径、增长阶段等方面,拨开短期扰动,更客观地把握中国经济的未来前景。从复杂系统视角,将总体经济增长与地区经济增长的敛散性相结合,提出一种检验经济增长状态变化的新方法,采用1979—2020年中国31个省市自治区和全国的年度实际经济增长率数据,研究表明:改革开放以来,中国经济共出现了两次状态跃迁;2003年中国经济开始第二次跃迁,在2006年之后中国经济一直在新增长路径上发展,从2013年开始,中国经济增长正趋向于新增长路径上的均衡。Describing the macroeconomic growth process from a holistic and historical perspective helps put aside short-term disturbances of elements such as growth path and growth stage,allowing us to grasp the prospects of the Chinese economy in a more objective manner.This article combines the convergence of overall economic growth and divergence of regional economic growth from a complex system perspective,and proposes a new method of examining status changes in China’s economic growth based on the real annual growth rates from 1979 to 2020 of the whole country and its 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions.The results show that the Chinese economy has undergone two status transitions since reform and opening up,with the second starting in 2003.After 2006,the Chinese economy was developing on a new growth path and since 2013,China’s economic growth has been moving towards equilibrium on this path.

关 键 词：经济增长 李雅普诺夫指数 状态跃迁 稳态均衡 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]