1970—2013年山东省女性乳腺癌死亡时空变化趋势分析  

Spatio-temporal trend of female breast cancer mortality in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2013

作　　者：楚洁[1] 鹿子龙[1] 刘静[2] 付振涛[1] 刘婷[3] 董静[1] 任杰[1] 陈先献[1] 郭晓雷[1] 徐爱强 Chu Jie;Lu Zilong;Liu Jing;Fu Zhentao;Liu Ting;Dong Jing;Ren Jie;Chen Xianxian;Guo Xiaolei;Xu Aiqiang(Department of Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250014,China;College of Public Health,Shandong University,Jinan 250012,China;Department of Health Education and Promotion,Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250014,China;Research Institute of Preventive Medicine of Shandong University,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所,济南250014 [2]山东大学公共卫生学院,济南250012 [3]山东省疾病预防控制中心健康教育与促进所,济南250014 [4]山东大学预防医学研究院,济南250014

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2022年第5期609-613,共5页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：泰山学者工程专项(TS201511105);山东省重点研发计划(2016GSF201231)。

摘　　要：1970年以来,山东省女性乳腺癌死亡率总体呈上升趋势。差别分解分析发现,1970—1990年代女性乳腺癌粗死亡率的微弱下降全部为非人口因素所致,1990年以后死亡率大幅上升为人口和非人口因素的共同作用,其中人口因素的贡献率逐渐上升,由2004—2005年的53.5%上升到了2011—2013年的59.5%,非人口因素的贡献率有所下降,由46.5%降到了40.5%。45~64岁是女性乳腺癌死亡的主要年龄段,占不同时期乳腺癌总死亡的40%~60%;其中55~64岁年龄组死亡率增长迅速,2011—2013年分别比1970—1974年、1990—1992年和2004—2005年上升了52.12%、115.19%和29.01%(Z=-7.342,P<0.001)。相对于1970—1974年,农村女性2011—2013年标化死亡率增长了41.86%(Z=-17.933,P<0.001);城市女性2011—2013年标化死亡率增长了18.62%(Z=-25.642,P<0.001)。不同时期城市女性乳腺癌标化死亡率均高于农村(均P<0.05)。空间扫描分析发现,1970—2013年山东省东部地区作为死亡高危聚集区持续存在,其他高风险聚集区则由鲁北地区向鲁西南地区转移。The mortality of female breast cancer in Shandong Province has increased since the 1970.The differential decomposition analysis found that the slight decline in the crude mortality of breast cancer among women was entirely due to non-demographic factors during the 1970-1990,and the significant increase in the crude mortality was due to a combination of demographic and non-demographic factors since the 1990.The contribution rate of demographic factor has gradually increased from 53.5%in 2004-2005 to 59.5%in 2011-2013,while that of non-demographic factor has decreased from 46.5%to 40.5%.The women aged 45-64 years old were the major population of female breast cancer deaths,accounting for 40%-60%of total breast cancer deaths in different times,and then the mortality in female aged 55-64 years old increased rapidly,with increases of 52.12%,115.19%and 29.01%in 2011-2013 over the 1970-1974,1990-1992 and 2004-2005,respectively(Z=-7.342,P<0.001).Compared with 1970-1974,the age-standardized mortality rate of rural women increased by 41.86%in 2011-2013(Z=-17.933,P<0.001),and that of urban women increased by 18.62%in 2011-2013(Z=-25.642,P<0.001).The age-standardized mortality rate of breast cancer in urban women was higher than that in rural women in different times(all P<0.05).The spatial scan analysis found that eastern Shandong Province was found to be a sustained high-risk area for death,and other high-risk areas were transferred from north to southwest of Shandong between 1970 and 2013.

关 键 词：乳腺肿瘤 死亡率 流行趋势 空间分析 

分 类 号：R737.9[医药卫生—肿瘤]