上市公司“存贷双高”异象与股价崩盘风险  

The Phenomenon of “High Deposits and Loans” and Stock Price Crash Risk of Listed Companies

作　　者：窦超 原亚男 白学锦 DOU Chao;YUAN Ya-nan;BAI Xue-jin(School of Business,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学商学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2022年第4期174-192,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“政府背景大客户能否助力民企纾困?——影响因素、作用机理及经济后果”(批准号72002235);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金青年项目“政府背景客户能否改善资本市场认知——基于供应链风险传递与政府扶持双重视角”(批准号20YJC630016)。

摘　　要：近年来,以康美、康得新为代表的“存贷双高”型企业频现违约,给资本市场造成极大冲击。究竟“存贷双高”异象危害几何?本文以2007—2019年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本进行实证分析,从经济后果的角度系统验证“存贷双高”现象对企业股价崩盘风险的诱发效应。研究发现,大股东关联交易越频繁、盈余管理程度越高,“存贷双高”型企业面临的股价崩盘风险越高。进一步分析发现,较多的高管持股、较高的公司治理水平、较高的信息披露水平、高强度管理层权力有助于缓解“存贷双高”型企业面临的股价崩盘风险,并据此提出了相关缓解机制。上述结果说明,现阶段“存贷双高”型企业很可能虚有其表,背后与企业财务造假、大股东掏空密切相关,因此,投资者、监管机构等都需要对其予以足够重视,跳出传统财务分析的范畴对这一异象进行理解与警惕,提前防范市场风险。In recent years, the “high deposits and loans” enterprises represented by Kangmei and Kangdexin have frequently defaulted, causing a great impact on the capital market.How harmful is the phenomenon of “high deposits and loans”? This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2007 to 2019 as a research sample, and systematically verifies the induced effect of the phenomenon of “high deposits and loans” on the stock price crash risk from the perspective of economic consequences.The study found that the more frequent related party transactions of major shareholders and the higher the degree of earnings management, the higher the stock price crash risk faced by enterprises with “high deposits and loans”;further analysis indicate that the high level of executive shareholding, high level of corporate governance, high level of information disclosure, and high level of management power can help alleviate the stock price crash risk faced by enterprises with “high deposits and loans”, and accordingly puts forward relevant mitigation mechanisms.Moreover, the above results show that the “high deposits and loans” enterprises are likely to have a false appearance, which is closely related to corporate financial fraud and tunneling of major shareholders.Therefore, investors and regulators need to pay enough attention to it, jump out of the scope of traditional financial analysis to understand and alert this anomaly, and prevent market risks in advance.

关 键 词：存贷双高 股价崩盘风险 大股东利益侵占 财务造假 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]