基于DPSIR模型的西北五省区水安全评价  

Assessment of Water Security in Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia,Qinghai and Xinjiang,Northwest China Based on DPSIR Model

作　　者：蒋忙舟[1] 杨志 张晓明[3] 李鹏[4,5] 许垚涛 赵阳 任宗萍[4] 王得军[6] 文妙霞 JIANG Mang-zhou;YANG Zhi;ZHANG Xiao-ming;LI Peng;XU Yao-tao;ZHAO Yang;REN Zong-ping;WANG De-jun;WEN Miao-xia(China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group Co.,Ltd.,Xi an 710043,Shaanxi,China;Ningxia Soil and Water Conservation Monitoring Station,Yinchuan 750002,Ningxia,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100048,China;State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi an University of Technology,Xi an 710048,Shaanxi,China;Key Laboratory National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Ecological Hydrology and Disaster Prevention in Arid Regions,Xi an 710048,Shaanxi,China;Northwest Surveying,Planning and Designing Institute of National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Xi an 710048,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁第一勘察设计院集团有限公司,陕西西安710043 [2]宁夏回族自治区水土保持监测总站,宁夏银川750002 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100048 [4]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [5]旱区生态水文与灾害防治国家林草局重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [6]国家林业和草原局西北调查规划设计院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《地球科学与环境学报》2022年第3期535-544,共10页Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51779204);国家林业和草原局自主研发项目(LC-6-06);陕西省创新人才推进计划项目(2018TD-037)。

摘　　要：有效评价区域水安全和确定影响水安全的因素是实现水资源供应和需求之间可持续平衡的重要基础。基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)模型构建西北五省区水安全评价指标体系,采用隶属度函数、耦合协调度模型和障碍度模型,定量研究了西北五省区水安全动态变化、协调发展水平,并识别出影响水安全度的障碍因子。结果表明:西北五省区水安全度呈现变好的趋势,至2018年,陕西和青海水安全处于基本安全水平,甘肃、宁夏、新疆水安全处于较不安全水平;水安全子系统的耦合协调度与水安全变化相一致,2018年陕西水安全子系统耦合协调度等级为中级协调,甘肃、青海、新疆水安全子系统为初级协调,宁夏水安全子系统为勉强协调;GDP增长率、第三产业增长比重、城市化率是影响陕西、甘肃、宁夏、青海水安全度现状的主要障碍因子,而新疆水安全度主要受水资源利用率、单位面积水资源量、城市化率的影响。Effective evaluation of regional water security and identification of factors affecting water security are important basis for achieving a sustainable balance between water supply and demand.Based on driving force-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR)model,the water security evaluation index system for Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia,Qinghai and Xinjiang was constructed,the membership function,coupled coordination degree model and barrier degree model were used to quantitatively study the dynamic changes and coordination development level of water security in Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia,Qinghai and Xinjiang,and to identify the barrier factors affecting the water security.The results show that the water security in Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia,Qinghai and the Xinjiang show a trend of becoming better,and the water security in Shaanxi and Qinghai is at the basic safety level,and that in Gansu,Ningxia and Xinjiang is at a less safety level in 2018;the coupling coordination of water security subsystem is consistent with the changes in water security,and the water security subsystem in Shaanxi is at an intermediate level of coordination,that in Gansu,Qinghai,and Xinjiang is at a primary level of coordination,and that in Ningxia is at a barely level of coordination in 2018;the growth rate of GDP,proportion of tertiary industry growth,and urbanization rate are the main obstacle factors affecting the status of water security in Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia,and Qinghai,while water security in Xinjiang is mainly affected by water resources utilization rate,water resources per unit area,and urbanization rate.

关 键 词：水安全 DPSIR模型 耦合协调度 障碍因子 陕西 甘肃 宁夏 青海 新疆 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]